CryptoSlate
Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 60% from 75%, citing a shrinking Senate calendar and little visible progress on unresolved fights over ethics provisions and illicit finance. The downgrade comes just weeks after the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 in a 15-9 vote, marking a reversal for legislation that had recently appeared to have its clearest path yet. JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou issued a similar warning this week, saying the legislative window has narrowed as lawmakers move closer to the midterm elections.
Why it matters
The CLARITY Act is the crypto industry's central legislative priority because it would create the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets in the US, clarifying when cryptocurrencies fall under the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) versus the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Galaxy's head of research Alex Thorn pointed out that the revised estimate is driven mainly by timing rather than a collapse in support. The Senate is running out of usable days before the August recess, scheduled to begin at the end of July, and the chamber lost floor time to a fight over the administration's anti-weaponization fund and a failed 47-52 procedural vote to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act before the surveillance authority lapses June 12.
Market impact
The calendar pressure is colliding with a sustained fight over stablecoin yield, the most sensitive question for banks in the legislation. Banking groups argue that interest-like payments on stablecoins could pull deposits out of regulated institutions without the obligations that come with bank-like products; crypto firms counter that activity-based rewards tied to payments, transactions, and loyalty programs are part of payments innovation. The legislation still needs to secure 60 votes in the Senate, clear floor debate and amendments, align with a separate Senate Agriculture Committee text, and move through the House, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune likely needing to schedule floor time in July.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the CLARITY Act and why does it matter for crypto?
The CLARITY Act is the crypto industry's central legislative priority in Congress, designed to create the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets in the US by clarifying when cryptocurrencies fall under the SEC versus the CFTC, replacing years of enforcement-driven policy with clearer rules for…
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Why did Galaxy Digital cut its CLARITY Act passage odds?
Galaxy Digital lowered its 2026 passage estimate from 75% to 60%, driven primarily by timing rather than a collapse in support. The Senate is running out of usable floor days before the August recess, and unresolved disputes over ethics provisions and illicit finance safeguards remain open.
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What stage is the CLARITY Act at in Congress?
The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 in a 15-9 vote. It still needs to secure 60 votes on the Senate floor, pass debate and amendments, align with a separate Senate Agriculture Committee text, and move through the House before reaching the president's signature.
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What is the stablecoin yield fight in the CLARITY Act?
The legislation is currently written to prohibit passive yield on stablecoins — payments made simply for holding them — while allowing activity-based rewards tied to payments, transactions, loyalty programs, and trading incentives. Banks argue interest-like rewards could pull deposits out of regulated institutions…
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What would need to happen for the CLARITY Act to pass in 2026?
According to Galaxy Digital, the path improves if Senate Majority Leader John Thune commits floor time in early to mid-July, lawmakers bridge the ethics and illicit finance disputes, and the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees produce a combined package. Without those signals, the timeline likely shifts to…
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