Galaxy Digital cuts CLARITY Act passage odds to 60%!

Galaxy Digital has slashed its probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 60%, down from 75%, as a shrinking Senate calendar and unresolved policy disputes erode the bill's once-promising trajectory. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of research, cited timing as the primary driver — the Senate is running out of usable floor days before the August recess begins at the end of July. JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou issued a parallel warning this week, noting that the midterm election calendar is narrowing the legislative window further.

Why it matters

The CLARITY Act is the crypto industry's central legislative priority because it would establish the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets in the US, clarifying whether cryptocurrencies fall under SEC or CFTC jurisdiction. That would replace years of enforcement-driven policy with codified rules for issuers, exchanges, and investors. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 in a 15-9 vote, but it still needs 60 Senate floor votes, reconciliation with House legislation, and a presidential signature — a sequence that is becoming harder to fit into a crowded summer schedule. Open disputes over ethics provisions, illicit finance safeguards, and whether stablecoins can offer yield-like rewards remain unresolved, with banking groups and crypto firms actively lobbying against each other.

Market impact

Without a July floor commitment from Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Galaxy warns the bill likely slips to September, where campaign politics and a packed fall agenda could reshape or delay it into another Congress entirely.