Gold is trading near $3,000 after a roughly 28% drawdown from its early-2026 peak near $4,000 — a correction that one closely followed analyst argues is structurally normal and does not signal the end of the bull market. Seasonal data from prior midterm years places the average gold low at day 187 of the calendar year, with the current reading at day 162, pointing to a likely trough somewhere in the June-to-October window.
Why it matters
The analyst draws parallels to corrections in 1973 (-28%), 1974 (-25%), 2006 (-25%), and 2008 (-33%), each of which occurred inside ongoing bull markets before gold went on to new all-time highs. The monthly RSI reaching 95 — often cited as a bearish signal — also hit that level in 1973, after which gold still rallied to fresh records. The key technical support level to watch is the 20-month moving average and 21-month EMA, described as the "bull market support band" that gold respected throughout the 1970s bull run and the 2009-2011 cycle.
Market impact
For new all-time highs to materialise in 2026, gold would need to bottom within the next few weeks. A trough extending into September or October would push the next record high into the 2027-2028 window, which the analyst considers the base case. A secondary stock market correction expected in late Q3 or early Q4 — consistent with the typical midterm-year pattern seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022 — could either delay gold's low or, if gold decouples, accelerate its recovery relative to equities.
Frequently asked questions
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Why does the June-to-October window matter for gold's potential bottom?
Seasonal data from prior midterm years shows gold bottoms on average around day 187 of the calendar year, which falls in late June or early July. With the current reading at day 162, that average trough window is opening now, though it can extend to October if equities also correct.
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Is a 28% drawdown from the gold peak historically unusual for a bull market?
No. Gold dropped roughly 28% in 1973, 25% in 1974 and 2006, and 33% in 2008 — all within confirmed bull markets that went on to new all-time highs. The current drawdown of approximately 28% from the early-2026 peak sits within that historical range.
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What would need to happen for gold to reach new all-time highs in 2026?
The analyst argues gold would need to find its low within the next few weeks. If the trough extends into September or October, a new record high in 2026 becomes unlikely, shifting the expected timeline for fresh all-time highs to the 2027-2028 period.
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