CryptoSlate
Hyperliquid-linked ETFs have shed more than $27 million since mid-July, putting the three funds on track for their first negative month since launch after pulling in roughly $280 million since inception, SoSoValue data show. The reversal has coincided with a 13% monthly slide in HYPE, which traded near $54 this week, roughly 30% below its mid-June record of $76. Despite the price action, Grayscale Research argues the token is deeply undervalued relative to the revenue the underlying protocol is generating.
Why it matters
Hyperliquid has crossed $1 billion in cumulative protocol revenue in under two years, per DeFiLlama, a pace Grayscale says distinguishes HYPE from tokens that trade on narrative alone. The protocol's buyback mechanism routes most fee income into HYPE repurchases, which Grayscale has recast as an "earnings per token" framework borrowed from public-company analysis. Managing Director Zach Pandl pegged HYPE at roughly 15 to 18 times projected earnings at the price used in the analysis, against expected multiples of 35x for Coinbase and 40x for Circle. "On that basis, we think it looks cheap," Pandl said.
The valuation hinges on aggressive assumptions: Grayscale projects Hyperliquid could approach $1 billion in annual revenue by 2027, with 270M to 310M HYPE in circulation and earnings per token of $3.25 to $3.75. HYPE is not equity, holders do not receive protocol revenue directly, and the framework depends on trading activity staying strong, buybacks continuing, and unlock schedules behaving as modelled. Grayscale's comparison to Coinbase and Circle is structural, not legal, and the discount may reflect that mismatch more than mispricing.
Market impact
The growth case is broadening beyond crypto. Perpetual contracts tied to stocks, commodities, and indexes generated $25.1 billion in volume between July 13 and July 19, or 52% of Hyperliquid's $48.2 billion weekly total, the first time traditional-asset markets outweighed all other categories combined, per Blockworks.
Frequently asked questions
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How much have Hyperliquid ETFs lost in July?
The three Hyperliquid-linked ETFs have recorded more than $27M in net outflows since mid-July, putting them on track for their first negative month since launch after roughly $280M in cumulative inflows since inception, per SoSoValue.
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What is Grayscale's valuation argument for HYPE?
Grayscale Research recast Hyperliquid's fee-driven buyback model as an "earnings per token" framework, projecting ~$1B in annual revenue by 2027 and earnings per token of $3.25 to $3.75. At the price used in the analysis, that puts HYPE at 15-18x projected earnings, versus expected 35x for Coinbase and 40x for Circle.
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How much revenue has Hyperliquid generated so far?
Hyperliquid has crossed $1 billion in cumulative protocol revenue in under two years since launch, per DeFiLlama, with most of that income routed into HYPE buybacks through the protocol's decentralized perpetual-futures platform.
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How big are Hyperliquid's traditional-asset perp markets?
Perpetual contracts tied to stocks, commodities, and indexes generated $25.1B in volume between July 13 and 19, or 52% of Hyperliquid's $48.2B weekly total, the first time traditional-asset markets outweighed all other categories combined, per Blockworks.
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What are the risks to Grayscale's HYPE thesis?
HYPE holders do not own equity in Hyperliquid, the projections depend on trading volumes staying strong, and token unlocks from core contributors could pressure supply assumptions. Weekly volume can be driven by temporary volatility, and the expansion into traditional-asset derivatives introduces new regulatory and…
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