CoinDesk
Litecoin is trading within touching distance of its June 2022 bear-market low of around $40, with its fourth reward halving now roughly 13 months away on July 27, 2027, when the per-block payout drops by 50% to 3.125 LTC. The price weakness comes just as the network is quietly building out a fresh on-chain footprint through LitVM, its first EVM-compatible virtual machine, which has processed more than 63 million transactions on testnet since launching in April.
Why it matters
Across all three previous halvings, LTC has put in its cycle low between six and 14 months before the reward cut, then rallied into the event before cooling again. The first halving in August 2015 was preceded by a bottom roughly four months earlier. The second, in August 2019, was preceded by a December 2018 bottom about nine months earlier. The third, on August 2, 2023, came almost 14 months after a June 2022 low at $40, with LTC climbing to as high as $114 by July 2023 before fading to around $80 into the event.
The pattern makes the current $40 area structurally significant. Even during the November 2022 FTX collapse, which dragged the wider market down, LTC rose more than 40% that month. That sensitivity to supply-cut catalysts, rather than broad market direction, is the core of the bullish case heading into the next event.
Market impact
LitVM is the second leg of the setup. Since the testnet launch in April, more than 1.5 million new wallets have been created in the past two weeks alone, pushing the total past 4.4 million. The activity gives LTC a DeFi surface it has never had, which matters because previous halving rallies were almost entirely driven by supply mechanics rather than on-chain demand.
The risk is that a risk-off move in equities, or a sticky print on Thursday's US core PCE, drags BTC below $60K and pulls LTC through its $40 floor. LTC may be the only prominent decade-old coin still trading near its 2022 bear-market low, while BTC and ETH sit well above theirs. That makes the level a hard floor if macro cooperates and an obvious break level if it does not.
Frequently asked questions
-
When is Litecoin's next halving?
Litecoin's fourth reward halving is scheduled for around July 27, 2027, when the per-block payout will drop by 50% to 3.125 LTC.
-
How has LTC behaved before previous halvings?
Across all three prior halvings, LTC has bottomed between roughly four and 14 months before the event, then rallied into the date before cooling. The first was preceded by a bottom about four months earlier, the second by about nine months, and the third by nearly 14 months.
-
What is LitVM and why does it matter?
LitVM is Litecoin's first EVM-compatible virtual machine. Since its testnet launch in April, it has processed more than 63 million transactions and pushed total wallets past 4.4 million, giving LTC a DeFi surface it has not had before.
-
How close is LTC to its previous cycle low?
Litecoin is trading within touching distance of its June 2022 bear-market low of around $40, while BTC and ETH sit well above their 2022 levels. That makes LTC potentially the only prominent decade-old coin still near its prior cycle floor.
-
What is the main risk to a Litecoin rally into the halving?
Macro is the swing factor. A sticky US core PCE print or a deeper risk-off move in equities could drag BTC below $60K and pull LTC through its $40 floor before the halving cycle has room to play out.
Crypto News
Lookonchain
WuBlockchain
TheBlock
Crypto Rank News