CryptoSlate
Robinhood generated $173 million from event contracts in the third quarter, topping the $120 million it earned from cryptocurrency transactions. Event contracts made up 12.1% of the company's $1.424 billion in net revenue, while crypto revenue fell 55% year over year.
Why it matters
The figures show how prediction markets are becoming a second revenue engine for trading platforms, with a different relationship to crypto-market volatility. Robinhood's event-contract revenue rose from $104 million in the first quarter to $156 million in the second and $173 million in the third, totaling $433 million over the first nine months of 2026. The business had already overtaken crypto revenue in the second quarter.
Coinbase said its prediction-markets business exceeded $200 million in annualized net revenue. That is an annualized measure based on its latest qualifying quarter, not revenue earned over a full year. Coinbase also reported 82% compound quarterly growth over the product's operating history and more than 60% quarter-over-quarter growth in daily traders. CFO Alesia Haas said the revenue was less correlated with crypto volatility and could make the company more resilient across market cycles.
Market impact
The opportunity is not yet uniform. Gemini reported $524,000 in prediction-market revenue in the second quarter, about 1.2% of its $45 million total revenue. First-half prediction revenue of $968,000 implies $444,000 in the first quarter. Gemini's broader diversification came mainly from services, whose revenue grew 149% year over year as exchange revenue fell 38%.
Crypto.com, Bybit and Phemex also launched prediction-market offerings, but the cited announcements did not provide comparable revenue figures. Robinhood has warned that enforcement, litigation or legal changes could prevent it from offering event contracts. The key test is whether these products can produce recurring revenue at a scale that reduces platforms' dependence on crypto trading.
Frequently asked questions
-
How much did Robinhood earn from event contracts in the first nine months of 2026?
Robinhood earned $433 million across the first three quarters: $104 million in Q1, $156 million in Q2 and $173 million in Q3.
-
How did Robinhood's Q3 event-contract revenue compare with crypto revenue?
Event contracts generated $173 million, compared with $120 million from cryptocurrency transactions. Crypto revenue fell 55% year over year.
-
Is Coinbase's $200 million prediction-market figure actual annual revenue?
No. Coinbase described more than $200 million in annualized net revenue, a run-rate measure based on its most recent qualifying quarter.
-
How significant were prediction markets to Gemini's Q2 revenue?
Gemini reported $524,000 in prediction-market revenue, about 1.2% of its $45 million total revenue for the quarter.
-
What risks could affect Robinhood's event-contract business?
Robinhood warned that enforcement actions, litigation or changes in law could prevent it from continuing to offer event contracts.
WuBlockchain
CoinTelegraph
Lookonchain
WatcherGuru
TheBlock
Crypto News
CoinDesk