TheBlock
21Shares published its mid-year crypto market report on June 24, holding its $100,000 year-end base case for Bitcoin and describing current post-halving price action as still consistent with prior cycles.
The report audited the firm's 2026 industry forecasts and pointed back to Bitcoin's October 2025 peak of approximately $126,000 as the cycle high. ETP AUM stood at about $140 billion, with roughly 1.25 million BTC held across ETP structures, nearly 8% below prior peak levels.
Why it matters
A standing year-end call from a major institutional issuer is itself the signal, not the price target. 21Shares is the same cohort that front-ran spot ETP launches in Europe and the US, and the decision to reaffirm a $100K base case while conceding the chart is "still familiar" is an implicit read that the drawdown from the $126K peak is cyclical, not structural.
Market impact
The ETP AUM and BTC-held figures matter as much as the price call. $140 billion in AUM is the demand-side floor under any move, and 1.25 million BTC in ETP wrappers is a structural bid that did not exist in prior cycles. A recovery toward $100K from the current pullback implies ETP flows need to stay neutral-to-positive, since the products are already sitting 8% below their own peak holdings.
Frequently asked questions
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What did 21Shares say about Bitcoin's year-end price target?
21Shares reaffirmed its $100,000 year-end base case for Bitcoin in a mid-year crypto market report published June 24, while describing current post-halving price action as still consistent with prior cycles.
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How much Bitcoin is held in ETP structures right now?
21Shares' report put crypto ETP AUM at about $140 billion and BTC held in ETP structures at roughly 1.25 million, nearly 8% below prior peak levels.
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What was Bitcoin's previous cycle peak according to 21Shares?
The report pointed to Bitcoin's October 2025 peak of approximately $126,000 as the cycle high, against which the current pullback is being measured.
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Why does the 21Shares call matter if the price target is unchanged?
The reaffirmation is the signal: 21Shares is one of the issuers that front-ran spot ETP launches in Europe and the US, and standing by a six-figure call mid-drawdown is a louder read than the target itself, implying the move is cyclical, not structural.
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What would it take for Bitcoin to recover toward $100K from here?
A move back toward $100K requires ETP flows to stay neutral-to-positive, since 1.25 million BTC in ETP wrappers is already sitting roughly 8% below its own peak and acts as the demand-side floor under any rally.
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