SpaceX has fully retraced its post-IPO gains, falling roughly 34% from the launch high in about six trading sessions after an initial ~50% pop from the offer price. The drawdown echoes the 2010 Tesla IPO almost bar-for-bar: Tesla rallied ~60% from its June 29, 2010 open, slipped back below the IPO price within four days, and bottomed 50% off the high about a week later.
Why it matters
The comparison is unusually tight. Both companies are led by Elon Musk, both IPOs priced in June of a midterm election year (June 12, 2026 for SpaceX; June 29, 2010 for Tesla), and both followed the classic IPO sequence: a hype-driven spike, a full give-back, and a question mark over whether the IPO print marks durable value or just a clearing event. The presenter flagged the long-run framing: he has no interest in betting against Musk over a 20-year horizon and would treat any extended weakness in the back half of 2026 as an accumulation window, the way 2010–2012 ultimately was for Tesla.
Market impact
The one variable that does not match 2010 is the broader tape. In 2010 the S&P 500 took out its February low with a July low and then never revisited it, which is when Tesla put in its generational bottom. This year the S&P has only had one ~10% drawdown from the March high; the historical pattern across midterm years (2010, 2014, 2018, 2022) is a second, larger leg down in the back half, often peaking in September before rolling. If that second drop comes and takes out the March low, SpaceX likely puts in a low that holds for years. If it does not, the next leg is a bounce off current levels followed by one more test later in the year, with the direction of that bounce (higher high vs. lower high) determining whether the year-end base is a higher or lower low. The base case is range-bound chop into year-end, not a clean breakout, with the real accumulation window probably opening on any second-leg S&P weakness.
Frequently asked questions
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How much has SpaceX fallen from its post-IPO high?
SpaceX is down roughly 34% from its launch high after an initial ~50% pop from the offer price, giving back the full post-IPO gain in about six trading sessions.
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How does the SpaceX IPO compare to the 2010 Tesla IPO?
Both companies are led by Elon Musk, both priced in June of a midterm election year, and both followed the same pattern: an initial spike, a full give-back within days, and a question over whether the IPO print marked durable value. Tesla rallied ~60% from open, slipped below the IPO in four days, and bottomed 50% off…
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Why is the S&P 500 the key variable for SpaceX?
In 2010 the S&P took out its February low with a July low, and that is exactly where Tesla put in its generational base. This year the S&P has only had one ~10% drawdown from the March high, so the second, larger leg that midterm years typically deliver has not yet arrived.
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What is the base case for SpaceX into year-end?
Range-bound chop into year-end rather than a clean breakout, with one more test lower likely in the back half of 2026 if the S&P delivers the historical second-leg correction. A real accumulation window could open on any move that takes out the March low.
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Is the analyst bullish on SpaceX long term?
Yes, over a 20-year horizon he is explicitly not betting against Musk, and he would treat any extended weakness in the back half of 2026 as an accumulation window the way 2010 to 2012 ultimately was for Tesla.
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