CoinDesk
Standard Chartered head of digital assets research Geoffrey Kendrick told clients on Monday that bitcoin's decline to roughly $59,000 now reads as the cycle low, upgrading his call after three confirmation triggers he had flagged the prior week all materialised within days.
The first was corporate demand: Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, disclosed it purchased another 1,587 BTC last week. The second was a return to net inflows across U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which posted $86 million in net creations on Friday after a stretch of notable redemptions. The third was the continued slide in oil prices, which eased concerns that rising energy costs would push inflation and bond yields higher. "Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring," Kendrick wrote.
Why it matters
The call matters less for the price target than for the breadth of the signal: institutional demand, macro conditions and corporate treasury accumulation all flipped in the same window. Bitcoin had spent several months under pressure from rising geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation concerns and persistent ETF outflows — a stretch in which recent selling had been among the sharpest since the spot products debuted in January 2024, with Kendrick noting the pace was anomalous enough that some desks may have been raising cash for the anticipated SpaceX (SPCX) IPO. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong added to the shift on Monday, saying bitcoin may have already bottomed near $60,000 and that he remains "as bullish as ever."
Market impact
Kendrick identified one clean invalidation level: bitcoin needs to break above the $83,000 mark hit in early May — a level beyond which the pattern of lower highs on every rally this cycle would break. The asset traded around $66,300 at press time, up roughly 1% over 24 hours. Also supporting sentiment: Kraken launched perpetual futures to U.S. clients on Monday, joining the wave of onshore venues offering the derivatives product, and broader regulatory easing for U.S. crypto derivatives continued to draw institutional desks back into the market. A sustained push through $83K, Kendrick argues, would strongly confirm a new uptrend is underway.
Frequently asked questions
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Who is Geoffrey Kendrick and why does his call matter?
Kendrick is Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research. His Monday note upgraded the prior week's $59K cycle-low thesis after three confirmation triggers he had flagged — Strategy buying, ETF inflows returning and oil rolling over — all materialised within days.
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What three signals did Kendrick say had to confirm the bottom?
He had told clients he wanted to see renewed bitcoin purchases by Strategy, a return to positive U.S. spot bitcoin ETF inflows, and continued weakness in oil prices. By Monday all three had occurred, including $86 million in net ETF inflows on Friday and Strategy's purchase of 1,587 BTC.
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What price level would confirm a new bitcoin uptrend?
Kendrick said bitcoin needs a decisive break above the $83,000 high reached in early May to invalidate the cycle's pattern of lower highs. BTC was trading around $66,300 at press time.
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What did Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong say about the bottom?
Armstrong said on Monday that bitcoin may have already bottomed near $60,000 and that he remains "as bullish as ever" on the cryptocurrency, echoing Kendrick's upgraded call.
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Why are oil prices relevant to a bitcoin bottom call?
Kendrick treats oil as a macro proxy for inflation and bond-yield pressure — falling energy costs reduce the risk that hot CPI prints push real yields higher, which is the channel through which tighter Fed policy tends to weigh on risk assets like bitcoin.
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