CryptoSlate
President Donald Trump on June 22 signed two executive orders placing federal civilian computer systems on a 2031 post-quantum security timetable and launching a national effort to accelerate quantum computing development. One order requires federal high-value assets to adopt post-quantum cryptography for key establishment by end-2030 and for digital signatures by end-2031. The second creates the QC-ADDS program, aimed at delivering a quantum computer capable of scientific applications beyond classical machines to a Department of Energy facility, with technical specifications due in 90 days and cost analyses in 180.
The orders follow Commerce Department letters of intent signed last month to award just over $2 billion to nine quantum companies, including $1 billion to IBM for a superconducting wafer foundry and $375 million to GlobalFoundries for a multi-architecture fab. White House science advisor Michael Kratsios framed the package as a domestic supply chain and workforce build-out, with new apprenticeship programs and reconstituted advisory bodies.
Why it matters
The compressed timeline refocuses attention on roughly 7 million BTC, worth nearly $449 billion, sitting in on-chain outputs whose public keys are already exposed. A sufficiently powerful quantum machine running Shor's algorithm could derive the corresponding private spending keys, granting attackers full control over those funds. Project Eleven CEO Alex Pruden said the executive orders put offense and defense on the same five-year horizon, and that post-quantum migration is no longer a future problem.
About 65% of Bitcoin remains structurally shielded because public keys stay hidden until coins are spent. The exposed 35% is heavily concentrated: 21Shares data shows 84.5% of it sits in just 4,079 wallets, roughly 80% of them anonymous. Address-reuse exposure alone grew by 28,306 BTC in May 2026 and by about 500,000 BTC over the past year.
Market impact
The hardest case is the 1.08 million BTC mined in 2009, held in Pay-to-Public-Key outputs where the key is permanently visible. 21Shares senior analyst Karim AbdelMawla warned that any movement from those Satoshi-era coins would force a market-wide repricing of Bitcoin's security assumptions, regardless of whether quantum hardware is ready. The permanently exposed tier drains at only ~500 BTC per month, putting a voluntary clear-out on a roughly 300-year timeline.
Developers are already debating BIP-361, which would phase out conventional spending from vulnerable addresses and leave unmigrated coins effectively frozen.
Frequently asked questions
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What did Trump's June 22 executive orders on quantum computing actually do?
One order requires federal high-value civilian systems to adopt post-quantum cryptography for key establishment by end-2030 and digital signatures by end-2031. The second creates the QC-ADDS program to deliver a scientific-grade quantum computer to a Department of Energy facility, with technical specs due in 90 days.
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How much Bitcoin is exposed to a quantum attack?
Roughly 7 million BTC, worth about $449 billion, sit in on-chain outputs whose public keys are already exposed and could theoretically be derived from by a sufficiently powerful quantum machine running Shor's algorithm.
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Why are the 2009 Satoshi-era coins especially vulnerable?
Those 1.08 million BTC are held in Pay-to-Public-Key outputs where the public key is permanently visible on the ledger. They cannot be shielded until spent, and 21Shares estimates the broader permanently exposed tier drains at only ~500 BTC per month.
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How concentrated is the quantum exposure in Bitcoin?
21Shares and Dune analytics data show 84.5% of exposed Bitcoin sits in just 4,079 wallets, and roughly 80% of those carry no public label, making the largest at-risk holders difficult to identify for compliance purposes.
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What is BIP-361 and what would it do?
BIP-361 is a draft proposal to phase out conventional spending from quantum-vulnerable addresses, restrict ECDSA and Schnorr signature spending roughly five years after activation, and require a specialized quantum-safe rescue process. Coins whose owners cannot meet the new cryptographic conditions would eventually be…
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