Crypto News
XRP traded near $1.03 after a 1.24% 24-hour slide, with the token now testing the psychologically critical $1 support zone as U.S. spot XRP ETF inflows cratered 79% from their May peak. The contraction tracks the legislative trajectory of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, which the Senate moved past its August 7 recess without floor consideration, leaving September 14 as the earliest plausible window for a cloture vote. Kalshi traders have re-priced the bill's 2026 enactment odds to roughly 17%, down from a February peak near 82%.
Why it matters
The CLARITY Act cleared the House in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote and passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May 2026, landing on the Senate floor calendar on June 1. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has not granted the bill floor time, choosing instead to prioritize executive nominations and a foreign sanctions package. With Republicans holding 53 seats, leadership still needs at least seven Democratic crossover votes to clear the 60-vote cloture threshold.
Democratic resistance centers on two policy disputes. Commercial banks have lobbied against stablecoin provisions permitting yield payments on holdings, warning the structure threatens traditional deposits. Senior lawmakers have also insisted on tighter ethics restrictions barring executive officials from participating in private crypto projects. Senator Cynthia Lummis acknowledged the friction, noting key members remain "really resistant" to the framework without broader concessions.
Market impact
The institutional response to the gridlock is concrete and quantifiable. U.S. spot XRP ETFs booked $131.94 million in net inflows during May, when Senate committee momentum peaked, then contracted sharply to $59.46 million in June and just $27.29 million in July. The 79% collapse in monthly flow coincides with the Kalshi probability reset, suggesting allocators are pricing in a longer regulatory limbo than initially modeled.
The Senate leaves for its state work period from August 10 through September 11.
Frequently asked questions
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How much have XRP ETF inflows dropped since May?
U.S. spot XRP ETFs booked $131.94M in net inflows in May, then $59.46M in June and just $27.29M in July, a 79% collapse from the May peak.
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Why is the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate?
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has not granted floor time, prioritizing executive nominations and a sanctions package. Leadership still needs at least seven Democratic crossover votes to clear the 60-vote cloture threshold.
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What are Kalshi odds for CLARITY Act passage in 2026?
Kalshi traders priced the bill's 2026 enactment probability at roughly 17%, down from an 82% peak in February.
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When is the earliest the Senate could vote on CLARITY?
The earliest plausible window is September 14, after the Senate returns from its August 10 to September 11 state work period, assuming a cloture motion is filed before the break.
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What's holding up Democratic support for the bill?
Two main disputes: bank lobbying against yield-bearing stablecoin provisions and demands for tighter ethics restrictions barring executive officials from participating in private crypto projects.
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