CoinDesk
Programmable incentives that pay independent trading agents only when customer portfolios rise are arriving just as the agentic finance stack matures, CoinDesk columnist Naja argues. In a matter of weeks, Anthropic rolled out agents for finance, Circle launched nanopayments infrastructure, MoonPay shipped an agent debit card, and Gemini opened agentic trading — yet every product still sits on top of exchange and brokerage rails whose revenue model rewards trade frequency over customer outcomes.
Why it matters
The conflict is structural. Brokerages and exchanges don't need customers to win, they need them to keep trading. Robinhood at peak derived more than 75% of revenue from payment for order flow, and the twelve largest U.S. brokerages together paid market makers over $4.9 billion for order flow in 2025, up from roughly $3.8 billion in 2021. Crypto mirrors the same shape: Q1 2026 derivatives volume reached about $18.6 trillion, 70% of global crypto trading, with perpetuals dominating spot. Advisory models extract the same way — robo-advisors at 0.25% of assets and human advisors near 1%, paid whether the account is up or down. PiP World research puts retail trader losses at 74% to 89%, the figure every agent built on existing exchange incentives will inherit.
Market impact
The April 14 SEC approval of FINRA's elimination of the Pattern Day Trader rule removed the $25,000 minimum-equity friction, mechanically pushing more trades and more order flow through broker rails. The EU's PFOF ban takes effect June 30, 2026, ending the revenue line behind "free" trades for German and Austrian neobrokers and pushing Trade Republic toward BaFin-licensed order internalization. Crypto builders are meanwhile rebuilding onchain rails for AI agents — Circle's nanopayments protocol for fragmented liquidity, Hyperliquid's gas-free perpetuals — but maker-taker fees still apply.
Frequently asked questions
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What incentive model do the author argue AI agents need to beat exchanges?
Programmable incentives that pay the independent agent only when the customer's portfolio rises, so the agent's economics move in the same direction as the customer's P&L rather than trade frequency.
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How much did the top US brokerages pay for order flow in 2025?
The twelve largest US brokerages paid market makers more than $4.9 billion for order flow in 2025, up from approximately $3.8 billion in 2021, according to the column.
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What share of retail traders lose money, according to the piece?
PiP World research cited in the column found 74% to 89% of retail users lose money trading on these platforms.
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Which regulatory changes are squeezing the legacy free-trading model?
The April 14 SEC approval of FINRA's elimination of the Pattern Day Trader rule removed the $25,000 minimum-equity friction, and the EU's PFOF ban takes effect June 30, 2026, ending the revenue line behind free trades for German and Austrian neobrokers.
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What crypto-specific infrastructure is being built for AI trading agents?
Circle's nanopayments protocol for fragmented liquidity, Hyperliquid's gas-free perpetual futures, MoonPay's agent debit card and Gemini's agentic trading — all shipping inside a few weeks, the column notes.
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