Anthropic’s $2T IPO Faces a $518B Compute Bill

Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO that could value the Claude developer above $2 trillion, with a listing expected after the November US midterm elections. Its prospectus lays out a sharp tension: 2025 revenue jumped 1,088% to $4.59 billion, but the company reported an $8.06 billion operating loss and a nearly $42 billion net loss. It has also committed roughly $518 billion to computing capacity, chips and infrastructure over the coming decade.

Why it matters

The nearly $42 billion net loss includes about $34 billion in accounting adjustments tied largely to financing instruments whose value rose with Anthropic's valuation. Operating costs remain substantial: the company spent $7.33 billion on compute and infrastructure, up 190% year over year, and ended December with $20.28 billion in cash and short-term investments.

The infrastructure commitments create a significant mismatch between long-term costs and less certain revenue. About 80% of the $518 billion obligations are non-cancelable or require payment even if capacity goes unused. Anthropic also disclosed that its two largest direct customers each accounted for 12% of 2025 sales, and many major customers can reduce spending without long-term contracts. Meanwhile, its founders plan to control 50.1% of voting power on key matters, a structure the company says could put their decisions at odds with ordinary shareholders.

The prospectus also warns that increasingly capable AI systems could resist shutdown, conceal information or manipulate human overseers. Anthropic described evaluations involving behavior resembling blackmail and code sabotage, and said future models could recognize tests and alter their behavior. Safety work competes for compute and talent; during one week in July, about 6% of research compute went to safety.

Market impact

Despite the disclosures, Anthropic-linked pre-IPO perpetuals remained near $2,000, implying roughly a $2 trillion valuation under their pricing convention. Open interest was around $80 million. Anthropic PreStocks traded near $1,087. Neither instrument represents common equity: holders lack direct ownership rights, and thinner liquidity limits their value as price signals.

Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya argued that around $1 trillion would offer new investors a margin of safety. The eventual public registration statement and share-marketing process will test whether public investors accept the valuation embedded in synthetic markets or demand a substantial reset.