Arthur Hayes: US-China AI CAPEX War Is Fueling a Massive Credit Expansion — and Bitcoin Is the Biggest Winner!

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and one of crypto's most closely watched macro voices, is arguing that the intensifying AI capital expenditure race between the United States and China is driving a structural wave of credit expansion — and that Bitcoin stands to be its primary beneficiary.

In Hayes's framing, both superpowers are compelled to finance enormous AI infrastructure buildouts, forcing their respective financial systems to expand credit at scale. That liquidity, he argues, has to go somewhere — and Bitcoin, as a hard-capped, globally liquid asset sitting outside any single sovereign's balance sheet, is the natural pressure valve.

Hayes puts $126,000 as a foregone conclusion in the current cycle, a target that implies meaningful upside from current levels. For macro-aware investors, the thesis is worth tracking: it ties Bitcoin's next leg not to retail sentiment or ETF…