Bitcoin holders who bought 6 to 12 months ago have almost stopped sending coins to exchanges, according to CryptoQuant. Their share of exchange deposits fell from 40.4% in June to just 4.4%, a dramatic collapse in distribution from the cohort classically most inclined to sell after a run-up.
Why it matters
The 6-12 month band is the classic distribution window: coins bought in an earlier rally often flow to exchanges as holders take profit. When that flow dries up this sharply, it signals the sell pressure that typically caps rallies is being withdrawn rather than absorbed by buyers.
On-chain supply dynamics like this matter because they compound. Every week this cohort holds instead of distributing, more of the floating supply effectively locks into conviction hands, tightening the supply side of the equation.
Market impact
Historically, sustained drops in exchange deposit activity from short-to-medium-term cohorts have preceded strong price performance, since fewer coins are offered into the bid. With deposit share at 4.4% versus 40.4% just months ago, the data points to a heavily reduced overhead supply.
The key thing to watch is whether the cohort moves into the 12-month-plus band without distributing, which would convert today's held coins into long-term-holder supply and further deepen the squeeze.
Frequently asked questions
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What share of exchange deposits do 6-12 month Bitcoin holders make now?
Per CryptoQuant, this cohort's share of exchange deposits fell to just 4.4%, down from 40.4% in June, a near-total pullback in coins being sent to exchanges.
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Why does the 6-12 month holder cohort matter for Bitcoin sell pressure?
Coins bought 6 to 12 months ago are classically distributed into rallies for profit-taking, so when this cohort stops depositing to exchanges, a major source of sell pressure is withdrawn.
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What does the drop from 40.4% to 4.4% signal about Bitcoin supply?
It signals that supply is tightening: fewer coins are being offered into the market bid, so each week of holding locks more floating supply into conviction hands.
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Who produced the data on Bitcoin holder exchange deposits?
The figures come from CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics firm that tracks Bitcoin exchange deposit and holder cohort behavior.
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What should on-chain watchers look for next in this Bitcoin cohort?
The key signal is whether these coins move into the 12-month-plus band without being distributed, which would convert them into long-term-holder supply and deepen the supply squeeze.
CoinDesk
Whale Alert
Benjamin Cowen