Bitcoin's relationship with global money supply and the risk of a further stock market decline took center stage in a preview of the Investing Through the Cycles conference. Matt Crosby said Bitcoin's year-on-year returns typically lead global M2 growth by about 44 days, based on his analysis.
Crosby argued that Bitcoin's recent underperformance resembles previous bear-market periods and said his base case is for a new all-time high in 2027. Fellow speaker Allesio said a stock market decline could also pull Bitcoin lower, while noting that equities could continue to rally if key support levels hold.
The speakers also differed over Bitcoin's realized price, a measure based on the price at which coins last moved. The host noted that Bitcoin had fallen below it in previous bear markets, while Crosby argued that changes in the market and alternative cost-basis measures complicate that comparison.
Frequently asked questions
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How does Matt Crosby compare Bitcoin with global money supply?
Crosby said his analysis shows Bitcoin's year-on-year returns typically lead global M2 growth by about 44 days.
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What is Crosby's Bitcoin outlook for 2027?
Crosby said his base case is for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high in 2027.
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Why did the speakers discuss stock market support levels?
Allesio said a stock market decline could also pull Bitcoin lower, while equities could continue to rally if key support levels hold.
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What does Bitcoin's realized price measure?
Realized price is a measure based on the price at which coins last moved.
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Why did the speakers disagree over realized price?
The host noted that Bitcoin had fallen below realized price in previous bear markets. Crosby argued that market changes and alternative cost-basis measures complicate the comparison.
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