A Bitcoin analyst who previously used the four-year halving cycle as the foundation of his forecasts now argues that economic expansion is the stronger guide to crypto markets. Dan points to a turn in manufacturing indicators and says Bitcoin may have bottomed in June 2026, earlier than investors waiting for an October low expected. He argues that past halving dates coincided with shifts in the business cycle, making the calendar pattern look more predictive than it is.
Why it matters
Dan uses the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, or PMI, as a gauge of expansion and contraction. His thesis is that Bitcoin has behaved like other risk assets during those shifts, rather than following a clock set by its halvings. He also points to copper’s performance against gold and the Russell 2000 as signs to watch for a broader growth-led move.
His newly launched, proprietary US business-cycle index has signaled expansion. It combines manufacturing surveys from five regional Federal Reserve banks and requires three consecutive monthly readings above 51 to mark expansion, or three below 49 to mark contraction. That signal belongs to his model; it is not an official ISM PMI reading.
Market impact
Dan expects crypto, particularly smaller altcoins, to respond later than other risk assets as growth improves. He says the end of Federal Reserve quantitative tightening in December 2025 and the index’s expansion signal strengthen his bullish outlook, while acknowledging that the pace of the next expansion is uncertain.
The test for investors is whether improving economic data is followed by sustained strength across Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. His argument challenges a fixed-date trading plan, but the historical alignment of halvings and economic turns does not by itself establish which drove past rallies.
Frequently asked questions
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Why does Dan question the predictive value of Bitcoin halvings?
He argues that past halving dates coincided with turns from economic contraction to expansion, so the apparent four-year market pattern may reflect the business cycle.
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What does Dan use to track the business cycle?
He looks at the ISM manufacturing PMI and a separate proprietary index that combines manufacturing surveys from five regional Federal Reserve banks.
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How does Dan’s proprietary index identify an expansion?
It requires three consecutive monthly readings above 51 to signal expansion. Three consecutive readings below 49 signal contraction.
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Why does Dan watch copper against gold and the Russell 2000?
He uses them as indicators of changing growth conditions and risk appetite, which he believes can help frame moves in Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
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What would test Dan’s bullish outlook for crypto?
The key test is whether improving economic data is followed by sustained strength in Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. Dan expects smaller altcoins to respond later than other risk assets.
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