Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin has now entered the third and what he believes is the final stage of the current bear market, following a new price low set in June 2026 that broke below the February floor. The framework divides the bear cycle into three roughly four-month stages, each defined by how widely the market accepts the downturn.
Why it matters
Stage one ran October 2025 to February 2026, when only a minority acknowledged the bear. Stage two, February to June 2026, saw roughly half the market capitulate to the thesis after Bitcoin printed a lower low. Stage three — now underway — is characterized by a majority finally accepting the bear, with Cowen's own Twitter polls showing 60-65% of respondents expecting further downside. Historically, it is only when that consensus reaches 75-80% that the market tends to reverse, suggesting the bottom is not yet fully priced in sentiment terms.
Market impact
Cowen draws parallels to 2014 and 2018 cycles: in 2014, successive lows ran 15-18% below each prior trough; in 2018, the final low was a shallower sweep before recovery. For the current cycle, he flags $57,000-$58,000 as a plausible support zone if the June low holds, with a potential short-term higher low setting up a July rally. If the June low is broken materially, October 2026 becomes the next candidate for a cycle bottom. The key psychological signal to watch: the moment the last holdout bulls publicly turn bearish is typically when the bear market exhausts itself.
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