Bitcoin Falls Below $81,000 as Fed Hike Bets Persist

Bitcoin fell below $81,000 on Oct. 8, reaching an intraday low near $80,800 as traders expected the Fed to hold rates in October. But September FOMC minutes said most participants viewed another rate increase by year-end as probable, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller said further hikes were likely if data evolved as expected.

Why it matters

Market pricing cited by Waller on Oct. 8 put the chance of at least one rate hike by December at 85%. Traders also assigned nearly 80% odds to at least two hikes by March 2027 and 33% to three or more. Those probabilities are cumulative and market-implied. An October pause could delay the next move without changing expectations for a steep policy path.

The wider backdrop remains difficult for risk assets. On Oct. 8, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.305%, the 2-year yield stood at 4.821%, and Brent crude traded at $104.87. Higher yields keep borrowing costs elevated, while oil prices sustain inflation concerns.

Market impact

Glassnode reported that combined spot-exchange and US Bitcoin spot ETF volume was near $6.8 billion a day, below roughly 90% of observations since January 2024. Estimated new money from ETFs, stablecoins and corporate treasury buying totaled $4.9 billion, while realized cap rose $12.8 billion over 30 days. The report points to a rally supported more by repricing of existing capital than by deep new buying.

CoinGlass recorded more than $1 billion in liquidations over 24 hours, including $930 million in long positions. Glassnode had flagged modeled long-liquidation exposure between $81,700 and $83,300, with large Binance bids near $81,000 to $81,250. The price move crossed those levels, while liquidations amplified the decline.

A recovery would need to reclaim $85,500 with higher spot volume. Glassnode identifies sell orders at $86,500 to $86,750 and a larger liquidation cluster above price between $87,100 and $95,900, heaviest near $92,000. If buyers fail to rebuild, another modeled liquidation cluster sits near $75,000. September CPI on Oct. 14 and Fed meetings on Oct. 27–28 and Dec. 8–9 are the next tests.