Every Zipp story tagged #FedPolicy, newest first.
A payrolls figure below the 110K consensus would validate Warsh's lower-inflation read, unwind lopsided dollar longs, and hand bitcoin and gold their next leg up.
Two analysts separately argue the easy AI trade is over, correlations are rising, and bitcoin's four-year cycle is still intact, with a $54K to $58K bottom on the table.
The world's largest stablecoin now sits on a US debt book larger than most sovereign wealth funds, and Kevin Warsh's Fed has no playbook for what that means when Treasury markets seize.
Markus Thielen frames the call around a hawkish Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh and a strengthening dollar, with a late-August-to-October bottom window guided by global liquidity, the macro calendar…
Six straight weeks of ETF outflows meet a Fed that has stopped cutting, while realized volatility has now overshot the implied levels options traders paid to hedge with.
Bond traders are now pricing a 2026 rate hike while stocks decouple from yields — a macro pincer that drains the liquidity bid crypto’s recovery was built on.
US small business hiring is expected to fall to its lowest level since May 2020, a threshold that carries significant…
A 172K print trounced the 130K consensus, taking Fed cut expectations off the table for now and dragging Bitcoin into a fresh leg lower.
The 10-year yield ripped to a one-year high after a stronger-than-expected payrolls beat, draining the liquidity bid that's carried BTC for months and putting the next move squarely in the hands of…
Powell can cut the federal funds rate all he wants — long-term yields are being set by $37.6T of debt and $30.2T in annual Treasury issuance, not by the FOMC, and the 10-year barely budged through…
Two soft prints in one morning: a labor market cooling faster than economists expected and an inflation gauge undershooting forecasts — the Fed's preferred measure is still 3.3% YoY.
A 60-day extension buys time for diplomacy, not for Bitcoin's macro breakout: ~20% of global oil still transits Hormuz, and BofA and Goldman have both pushed Fed-cut bets to late 2026 or 2027.
CME FedWatch now prices a 54.1% probability of a December hike versus 1.5% for any cut — the same book that opened the year betting on two-plus cuts — and Bitcoin's macro setup is paying for it.
PolyMarket shows just a 3% odds of a cut by year-end and a 54% chance of a hike before June 2026 — a hawkish path that has historically been hostile to risk assets including Bitcoin.
With futures now pricing a 44% chance of a December rate hike, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin against a 4.05% two-year yield is doing exactly what the macro playbook says it should.
The monthly core print ran more than triple the consensus 0.3% forecast and lifted the annual rate to 5.2% — a fresh test of the disinflation narrative the Fed has been leaning on.
Headline CPI printed 3.8% YoY, core 2.8% — both above consensus — as shelter and services inflation stayed sticky, and traders promptly pulled forward Fed cut bets.
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