Bitcoin has rallied to within striking distance of its 200-day moving average, a level that has acted as firm resistance in every major bear market cycle on record. In 2018 and 2022, the 200-day capped the recovery and the price eventually rolled over. Even in 2014 and 2019 — the two exceptions where Bitcoin briefly broke above it — the move didn't hold for long before the market reversed.
The current setup draws a striking parallel to mid-2018: a February low, a higher low in April, and a rally into the 200-day in May. The price levels are almost exactly 10x higher, but the structure is nearly identical. The 2019 analog offers a more optimistic read — Bitcoin got rejected, then reclaimed the 200-day — but that recovery was also short-lived.
The analyst behind the breakdown still holds a bearish base case, expecting Bitcoin to eventually roll over as the year progresses. The 200-day…
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