CoinDesk
Bitcoin traded near $77,200 at 6:35 UTC on Monday, up 0.4% from midnight and holding just above its widely tracked 50-day simple moving average of around $76,940 — a level chart analysts view as a key breakout trigger when sustained. ETH, XRP and SOL rose 0.4–0.6%, but all three remain below their own 50-day averages, leaving BTC as the only major above the line. The bid got a tailwind from a 5% drop in West Texas Intermediate crude to roughly $91 a barrel, extending a slide from last Wednesday's high above $104, as weekend reports said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was in its final stages.
Why it matters
The Hormuz chokepoint handled more than 20% of global oil flows before the Iran war began in late February, so any credible reopening narrative pulls energy prices down fast and loosens the risk-off grip on growth-sensitive assets. Asian equities caught the bid immediately: India's Nifty climbed over 1%, Japan's Nikkei added nearly 3% in early trade, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.4%. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington and Iranian negotiators have "a pretty solid thing on the table" and that a deal could come as soon as Monday, though he stressed the U.S. is ready to exhaust other means if diplomacy fails.
Market impact
The relief trade is real but incomplete. BRN head of research Timothy Misir framed the gating question in an email: "For crypto, the key signal is whether ETF outflows slow. Bitcoin can absorb some institutional selling if stablecoin liquidity remains firm and long-term holders stay patient. Sustained ETF redemptions would make every rally harder to hold." Spot ETFs have bled more than $2 billion over the past two weeks, and India-based FIU-registered CoinSwitch flagged 18,528 BTC moving net into centralized exchanges — a sell-side watchpoint. CoinSwitch added that a finalized U.S.–Iran deal is the precondition for sustained upside, not just a headline. Watch the 50-day at $76,940 on the downside; a clean close back below it would unwind the breakout thesis.
Frequently asked questions
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Why is Bitcoin holding above $77,000 on Monday?
Bitcoin traded near $77,200 at 6:35 UTC, up 0.4% on the day, sitting just above its 50-day simple moving average of around $76,940. A 5% drop in WTI crude on reports a Strait of Hormuz reopening deal is in its final stages pulled Asian equities higher and supported crypto sentiment.
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How are spot bitcoin ETFs performing during this rally?
Spot bitcoin ETFs have seen more than $2 billion in net outflows over the past two weeks, according to BRN. That institutional selling is the main reason analysts are calling the current bounce a relief rally rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
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What does the Strait of Hormuz have to do with crypto prices?
The strait handled over 20% of global oil flows before the Iran war began in late February, so credible reopening reports pull energy prices down, loosen risk-off positioning, and feed into growth-sensitive assets including equities and crypto. WTI crude dropped 5% to around $91 a barrel on Monday.
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Is a U.S.–Iran peace deal actually close?
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington and Iranian negotiators have "a pretty solid thing on the table" and a deal could come as soon as Monday. He stressed, however, that the U.S. is ready to use other means if diplomacy fails, leaving the outcome uncertain.
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What level should traders watch on Bitcoin's chart?
The 50-day simple moving average sits at around $76,940, and BTC is currently trading just above it. A sustained close back below that line would unwind the breakout thesis; a clean hold above it keeps the door open for a broader trend continuation if ETF outflows slow.
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