Bitcoin is closing in on its first real bull market entry signal in over three years: a weekly breakout above the descending trend line that has capped every rally attempt since the early-2023 lows. The chart setup now mirrors the 2023 reversal pattern, with the 200-week moving average holding as a base, the 20-week and 50-week already above it, and price pressing through the macro trend line. The first macro resistance sits at the 20-week around $70,000; the 50-week above that is the next test before a confirmed bull market phase can be called.
The altcoin chart is sending a parallel message on the monthly. The monthly RSI has reset to record-oversold territory after years of suppression tied to quantitative tightening, and May's first light-red print on the monthly MACD histogram has historically marked the start of every prior bottoming process. July matters because the altcoin market cap chart is currently testing the 50-month moving average near $900 billion; a close above that line, paired with the MACD signal, is the combination that has triggered prior alt reversals, including the 2019 and late-2022 bottoms.
Why it matters
The analyst frames this as a macro value setup rather than a trade. Bitcoin's risk score sits at 20, the altcoin risk model at 10, and the global crypto market cap model reads single digits, levels where, going back to 2013, price has been higher 100% of the time one year later. Long-term holder MVRV is at 17, deep in accumulation range, though the analyst flags that the score has not yet fallen below 1, a threshold past bottoms have typically crossed.
Market impact
The near-term watchpoints are narrow: the weekly close above the trend line and the 200-week moving average, the 20-week around $70,000 as first macro resistance, and on altcoins, whether the monthly candle can close back above the 50-month moving average within roughly three weeks. Failure at either level would reopen the case for a lower low into the fall, with a possible retest of the $60,000 zone on Bitcoin before any confirmed reversal.
Frequently asked questions
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What bull market signal is Bitcoin about to print for the first time in 3 years?
A weekly breakout above the descending trend line that has capped every rally attempt since the early-2023 lows, with the 200-week moving average holding as a base and price pressing through the macro trend line toward the 20-week around $70,000.
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Why is July a key month for altcoins according to this analysis?
The altcoin market cap chart is currently testing the 50-month moving average near $900 billion. May already printed the first light-red histogram bar on the monthly MACD, and the combination of that signal plus a monthly close back above the 50-month MA has historically triggered prior alt reversals, including 2019…
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What do the Bitcoin and altcoin risk models say right now?
Bitcoin's risk score is at 20, the altcoin risk model at 10, and the global crypto market cap model reads single digits. Going back to 2013, those levels have been followed by higher prices 100% of the time one year later.
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Has long-term holder MVRV already bottomed?
Not fully. Long-term holder MVRV is at 17, deep in accumulation range, but the analyst flags it has not yet fallen below 1, a threshold past bottoms have typically crossed, leaving room for a deeper low if that print does not arrive.
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What levels to watch on Bitcoin in the near term?
The weekly close above the trend line and the 200-week moving average, then the 20-week MA around $70,000 as first macro resistance, with the 50-week above that as the next test. Failure reopens the case for a lower low toward the $60,000 zone.
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