CoinDesk
Bitcoin is closing in on the lower support line of a power-law price model Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macro, has tracked since 2015. That line sits near $58,000, and bitcoin at roughly $62,700 is only a few thousand dollars above it.
The model plots bitcoin's entire price history on a logarithmic chart bounded by three curves, an upper resistance line, a middle trendline, and a lower support band that has caught every major bottom since 2015. On Timmer's latest reading, the support line sits near $58,000 and the gap between price and trendline has widened to negative 56%, a depth he labels an accumulation zone.
Why it matters
That same accumulation-zone depth lined up with the 2018 and 2022 cycle lows, and the 52-week bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen in tandem to about negative 100%. But Timmer is not calling a bottom. He argues the speculative premium that pushed bitcoin past $120,000 last year is largely gone, that global money supply growth is slowing, and that there is no clear catalyst to reverse the slide until liquidity returns.
Market impact
His read is that bitcoin can drift sideways along the support line for months rather than snap back. The fast money has already rotated: Timmer tracks it moving from bitcoin into gold, and out of gold into semiconductor stocks, which is where speculative capital is now concentrated. Without a fresh liquidity impulse, the path of least resistance is a long base near $58,000 until macro conditions turn.
Frequently asked questions
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What power-law support level is Bitcoin approaching?
Bitcoin is nearing the lower support line of a power-law price model Jurrien Timmer at Fidelity has tracked since 2015, currently sitting near $58,000. As of the analysis, BTC was around $62,700.
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Why does Timmer call it an accumulation zone?
He labels the negative 56% gap between price and the power-law trendline an accumulation zone. The same depth lined up with the 2018 and 2022 cycle lows, and the 52-week bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen to about negative 100%.
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Is Timmer calling a bottom in Bitcoin?
No. He has said the speculative premium that pushed bitcoin past $120,000 last year is largely gone, that global money supply growth is slowing, and that there is no clear catalyst for a reversal until liquidity returns.
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Where has speculative capital rotated to?
Timmer tracks a rotation out of bitcoin into gold, and out of gold into semiconductor stocks, which is where the chase is now concentrated. He expects bitcoin to drift near support rather than snap back.
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How long could Bitcoin stay near the support line?
Timmer's base case is months, not weeks. He expects bitcoin to sit sideways near the $58,000 support band for an extended period absent a fresh liquidity catalyst to reverse the trend.
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