Bitcoin on-chain risk hits 0.18 — cycle bottom signal…

A composite of Bitcoin on-chain risk metrics has dropped to 0.18, a reading that historically clusters in mid-term years and precedes market cycle bottoms. The signal comes from normalising multiple indicators — including MVRV Z-score, the Puell Multiple, miner-cap-to-thermocap ratio, and percentage of supply in profit and loss — between zero and one, then aggregating them into a single risk score.

Why it matters

Historically, Bitcoin spends very little time below the 0.2 threshold on this composite metric, and each prior bear market has seen it carve out a multi-month low before the next bull cycle begins. The current setup draws a direct parallel to 2019: Bitcoin topped with an apathetic high, quantitative tightening ended roughly two months after the BTC peak, there was no rotation into altcoins, and the Fed delivered three rate cuts — all conditions that also characterised 2025. That analogy suggests the current phase is a post-top digestion period, not a structural breakdown.

Market impact

The percentage of supply in profit and loss has crossed a threshold that, in every prior bear market, preceded the cycle low by one to four months. If the 2019 parallel holds, Bitcoin is in the third and final stage of its bear market, with a bottom most likely before year-end — October cited as the highest-probability month. A confirmed low on the composite risk metric would set the reference point from which the next cycle's returns are measured, and the 2019 analogy implies the subsequent bull run could carry a more euphoric top than the last.