CoinDesk
Jiang Zhuoer, one of China's best-known bitcoin miners, predicted the current bear market will bottom in the fourth quarter with bitcoin trading between $42,000 and $44,000, roughly 30% below current levels near $60,700. His timing is anchored to Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, rather than to the token itself.
Jiang's thesis leans on Strategy's market net asset value (mNAV), the ratio of the company's stock price to the per-share value of the bitcoin it holds. That multiple has compressed to 0.72, putting the market roughly 28% below the value of Strategy's underlying bitcoin stack. He compares that print to the 0.7 low Strategy hit on May 11, 2022, during the last bull-to-bear turn. Bitcoin then took about six months to find its own floor, settling near $15,500 in November 2022, and Jiang applies the same lag to map a late-2026 low.
Why it matters
The mNAV signal is a sentiment proxy for how US equity investors are pricing the largest single corporate bitcoin vehicle. A reading below 1 has historically meant the market is valuing Strategy at a discount to its bitcoin stack, a posture of deep pessimism that has preceded major cycle turns. Pair that with bitcoin hovering near its 200-week moving average, a level FxPro flagged last week as preceding long stretches of weakness, and the bearish setup thickens. The debasement trade that carried bitcoin, gold, and silver in tandem has also been unwinding on a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, removing one of the macro tailwinds that supported the last leg up.
Market impact
Jiang's price target comes from a separate four-year cycle model that frames bitcoin's path as a bouncing ball, each successive swing smaller as market cap grows. The model outputs a $44,016 low on Oct. 31, with Jiang conceding the framework is more reliable on timing than on price, which is why the call sits inside a $42,000 to $44,000 band across October through December. The forecast lands alongside calls from some analysts last week for Strategy to suspend bitcoin purchases, arguing the company has overextended itself.
Frequently asked questions
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Who is Jiang Zhuoer and why does his prediction matter?
Jiang Zhuoer is one of China's best-known bitcoin miners and a long-time cycle commentator. His call is notable because it ties the timing of a BTC bottom to Strategy's mNAV, a sentiment proxy that preceded the last cycle's turn in May 2022.
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What is Strategy's mNAV and why is 0.72 significant?
mNAV is the ratio of Strategy's stock price to the per-share value of the bitcoin it holds. Above 1 means investors value the company at a premium to its BTC stack; below 1 means at a discount. The current 0.72 print puts the market roughly 28% below the value of Strategy's bitcoin, close to the 0.7 low hit on May 11,…
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How does Jiang's four-year cycle model work?
Jiang frames bitcoin's price path as a bouncing ball, with each successive swing shrinking as market cap grows. The model outputs a low of $44,016 on Oct. 31, and he concedes it is more reliable on timing than on price, which is why he gave a range of $42,000 to $44,000 across Q4.
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What other bearish signals is this call landing alongside?
Bitcoin is hovering near its 200-week moving average, a level FxPro flagged as preceding long stretches of weakness. The debasement trade that lifted BTC alongside gold and silver has also been unwinding on a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, and some analysts have called on Strategy to suspend its bitcoin purchases.
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How much would a $44,000 BTC bottom mean from current prices?
At the time of the call, bitcoin traded near $60,700, so the top of Jiang's $42,000 to $44,000 band implies a drawdown of roughly 28% to 30% over the fourth quarter of 2026.
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