Corporate Bitcoin treasuries face a debt clock forcing BTC liquidations
Strategy alone carries $6.7B in converts and $15.5B in preferred against 843,738 BTC; bear-case math puts calendar-driven selling at 77,100–128,500 coins over two years.
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Strategy alone carries $6.7B in converts and $15.5B in preferred against 843,738 BTC; bear-case math puts calendar-driven selling at 77,100–128,500 coins over two years.
Phong Le's threshold is an 85% drawdown from current levels, but the more pressing signal is STRC trading below par and the mNAV sitting barely above 1.0.
The post looks like a buying signal, but analyst Michaël van de Poppe frames the weak mNAV as a contrarian tell: Saylor is adding while the market doubts, the same setup that marked prior cycle…
The market is now pricing the entire Saylor enterprise below the bitcoin it holds, a level that turns new share issuance structurally dilutive and forces the treasury playbook to lean on debt,…
Management's own rule says MSTR stops being a productive BTC-buying vehicle below ~1.22x mNAV, and the market just pushed the company's enterprise value under its bitcoin stack.
The slide below 1.0 enterprise mNAV means the market now values Strategy's treasury operations at less than the bitcoin they hold, a structural break for the proxy-BTC trade.
Jiang Zhuoer's call rests on Strategy's mNAV sitting at 0.72, near the level that marked the last cycle's turn, and on a four-year cycle model whose prior low preceded bitcoin's own bottom by about…
He frames the call around Strategy's mNAV sitting at 0.72, close to the May 2022 low, and argues BTC typically bottoms roughly six months after MSTR's multiple does.