CryptoSlate
Bitcoin holders realized more than $2 billion in losses over three days, with CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost estimating daily losses of $657 million to $703 million. The 30-day moving average of spot net volume delta turned negative on Binance and Coinbase, as aggressive selling exceeded buying by $28 million on Binance and $9.4 million on Coinbase by Nov. 5. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report also lifted December Fed hike odds to about 80%.
Why it matters
The losses accelerated after Bitcoin fell below $80,000, approaching levels last recorded during early August's downturn. Weekly net realized profit and loss remained negative $191 million despite gains booked by other holders. CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno also identified declining Bitcoin demand and contracting stablecoin liquidity as major challenges, leaving buyers with less room to absorb another wave of selling.
October payrolls rose 165,000, more than twice the 65,000 expected, while unemployment fell to 4.1%. Futures traders raised the probability of a 25-basis-point December Fed hike from 75% before the release, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 4.88%. Higher yields make interest-bearing assets more attractive and can reduce risk appetite.
Market impact
Bitcoin briefly slipped below $75,000 on Friday as the tech-stock rout spread into digital assets; the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.52%. Analysts Lewis Huang and Darkfost identified $76,500 and $75,000 as key near-term supports, respectively. A sustained break below $75,000 could open a move toward $70,000, where a significant concentration of holders previously acquired Bitcoin, but persistent selling could overwhelm bids.
Spot activity and stablecoin liquidity are the clearest tests of stabilization. Even without a surprise December Fed decision, Bitcoin could test $70,000 if demand does not recover.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did Bitcoin's realized losses accelerate after the price fell below $80,000?
Darkfost said losses accelerated after Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 and were approaching levels last recorded during the market downturn in early August.
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What do the negative spot-flow readings on Binance and Coinbase show?
By Nov. 5, the 30-day moving average of spot net volume delta was negative $28 million on Binance and negative $9.4 million on Coinbase, indicating aggressive selling had overtaken buying.
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How did the October jobs report change December Fed pricing?
Payrolls rose 165,000 versus 65,000 expected, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. Futures traders raised the probability of a 25-basis-point December hike from 75% to about 80%.
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Which Bitcoin support levels could determine the next leg lower?
Lewis Huang identified $76,500 as near-term support, while Darkfost focused on $75,000. A sustained break below $75,000 could open a move toward $70,000.
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What would signal that Bitcoin is stabilizing before it tests $70,000?
A recovery in spot trading activity and stablecoin liquidity would be the clearest signs. Without stronger buying or renewed capital inflows, further selling could outpace demand and push Bitcoin toward $70,000.
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