Bitcoin Rebounds Above $78K Despite $1.1B ETF Outflows

Bitcoin rebounded above $78,000 on Wednesday after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.157 billion in net withdrawals across three sessions ending Nov. 3. The price had briefly slipped below $76,000 as election results emerged.

Why it matters

The election has added uncertainty around the path of US crypto policy. The CLARITY Act, which would define SEC and CFTC oversight boundaries, had already failed to advance a Senate procedural motion on Sept. 15, falling 49-50 against the 60 votes required. A new Congress does not take office until January 2027, leaving the immediate effect largely to investor expectations. Declining Treasury yields and a weaker dollar could offer a counterweight by easing financial conditions for risk assets.

Bitcoin sentiment also weakened ahead of the vote. Santiment said the ratio of bullish to bearish social commentary fell from about 1.8 on Oct. 20 to 0.51 as Democrats moved toward control of Congress. The firm said extreme pessimism can create conditions for a contrarian recovery, but it does not establish that a durable rebound is underway.

Market impact

The three ETF outflow sessions were $643 million on Oct. 30, $399 million on Nov. 2 and $116 million on election day. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $95 million of the final session's redemptions. Ryan Kirkley of Global Settlement Network has forecast a possible year-end recovery toward $85,000-$90,000, conditional on stabilizing ETF flows, improving liquidity and renewed macro confidence.

The price faces supply overhead. Glassnode estimated that about 4 million BTC held by long-term investors last moved between $85,000 and $118,000, and identified $84,000-$85,000 as a difficult resistance zone. Bitcoin would first need to reclaim the estimated $81,500 aggregate cost basis of US spot ETF holdings. A sustained move above $87,500 alongside repeated ETF inflows and rising volume would offer stronger evidence buyers are absorbing supply. The next near-term test is whether ETF flows turn positive as Bitcoin attempts to reclaim $80,000.