CoinDesk
Bitcoin slipped below $78,000 on Tuesday, shedding about 1% as it entered the historically weak month that traders call Rektember. The seasonal headwind is real: BTC has averaged roughly a 3% decline in September since 2013, with only five positive monthly closes over that span. The macro overlay this year is heavier than the seasonal pattern alone, though. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech has bond markets repricing toward more hikes, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield just hit 4.784%, a fresh cycle high.
Why it matters
Rektember is more than a meme this time. Markets are now pricing a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's September 16 meeting, with another potential move by year-end that would push the federal funds target to 4.00%–4.25% by the close of 2026. Higher rates tighten financial conditions and typically strengthen the U.S. dollar, both of which pressure risk assets. Gold dropped more than 2% on Tuesday, a reminder that this is a broad risk-off rotation, not just a crypto-specific story. WTI crude meanwhile pushed to $88 a barrel, the highest level since late July, as U.S. strikes against Iran added a geopolitical premium to the mix.
Market impact
BTC climbed 25% in August, its strongest month since November 2024, so the setup heading into Rektember is the opposite of comfortable. The past three Septembers have all delivered gains, which gives bulls a counter-narrative, but the macro tape is more hostile than it has been in any of those years. Sovereign yields hitting new cycle highs and a hawkish-leaning Fed chair shift the burden of proof onto anyone calling for a fourth green September. The S&P 500 itself has averaged a negative return in September since 1975, the only calendar month with that distinction. If BTC follows the cross-asset script, the path of least resistance through the next four weeks tilts lower.
Frequently asked questions
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Why is September called 'Rektember' for Bitcoin?
Since 2013, September has averaged roughly a 3% decline for BTC, with only five positive monthly closes over that span. It is BTC's worst-performing calendar month on average, and the only S&P 500 month with a negative average return since 1975.
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What are markets pricing for the September Fed meeting?
Traders are pricing a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC, with another potential move by year-end. That path would push the federal funds target to 4.00%–4.25% by the close of 2026.
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How did Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech affect markets?
Warsh emphasized elevated inflation, triggering a global bond sell-off and pushing the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to 4.784%, a fresh cycle high. The hawkish tone shifted rate-hike expectations higher across the curve.
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Why are higher interest rates bearish for Bitcoin?
Tighter monetary policy raises the discount rate on future cash flows, lifts the U.S. dollar, and tightens financial conditions, all of which pressure risk assets. Gold fell more than 2% on Tuesday, evidence that the pressure is broad, not crypto-specific.
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Does BTC have any seasonal counter-narrative for September?
The past three Septembers have all delivered gains, and August 2025 itself was BTC's strongest month since November 2024 at +25%. But the macro tape is more hostile this year than in any of those prior Septembers, leaving the path of least resistance tilted lower.
Benjamin Cowen
CryptoSlate
CoinTelegraph
TheBlock
Crypto Capital Venture