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Bitcoin traded under $80,000 on Friday after a five-day spot ETF inflow streak that anchored the recovery from February lows snapped. Spot BTC ETFs recorded $277 million in net outflows on Thursday, the first negative session after five consecutive inflows totaling $1.69 billion, per SoSoValue. Spot ether ETFs shed $104 million the same day, with none of the 10 funds posting net inflows.
The reversal coincided with renewed doubt over the Iran-U.S. ceasefire. Iranian officials accused Washington of violating agreed terms overnight, and reports of fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz sent crude higher in early Friday trading, partially unwinding the 8% Brent collapse that had lifted risk assets through midweek. Prediction markets are pricing a 97% probability of no Hormuz normalization by May 15.
April nonfarm payrolls came in at 115,000 jobs, nearly double the 62,000 consensus, with March revised up to 185,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%. The beat supports a near-term risk-on read, but Fed-cut odds continued to push out — perpetual swap markets are now pricing more than a 50% probability of a rate hike by April 2027, with early easing not arriving until 2028, per QCP Capital's weekly note.
Why it matters
Energy-driven inflation is now being treated as a structural constraint, not a pass-through, and that's the lens re-pricing the entire curve rather than the labor-market print. Bitcoin's move above $81,000 was driven by institutional spot buying and short liquidations rather than retail participation, with funding rates staying unusually soft through the rally, according to Nansen senior research analyst Jake Kennis. Smart-money positioning on HyperLiquid into payrolls showed net BTC buying of just $5.3 million over 24 hours — "modest flows rather than a conviction build," Kennis wrote.
Market impact
A weak-top composition caps the upside regardless of the macro bid. With retail sidelined, Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacie Zhang flagged pullbacks toward the $75,000–$78,000 support zone as the near-term path of least resistance.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did spot bitcoin ETFs see $277M of outflows on Thursday?
The five-day inflow streak totaling $1.69B snapped as Iran-U.S. ceasefire doubts resurfaced and BTC pulled back below $80,000. Spot ether ETFs shed $104M the same day, with none of the 10 funds posting net inflows, per SoSoValue.
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What did the April jobs report mean for bitcoin's price?
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 115,000, nearly double the 62,000 consensus, with March revised up to 185,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%. The beat supports a near-term risk-on read, but Fed-cut odds pushed out further as energy-driven inflation is being treated as a structural constraint, not a pass-through.
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How are Iran tensions affecting crypto markets right now?
Reports of fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz sent crude higher in early Friday trading, partially unwinding the 8% Brent collapse that had lifted risk assets through midweek. Prediction markets are pricing a 97% probability of no Hormuz normalization by May 15.
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Why are analysts calling bitcoin's rally composition weak?
Nansen senior research analyst Jake Kennis said the break above $81,000 was driven by institutional spot buying and short liquidations rather than retail participation, with funding rates staying unusually soft. Smart-money positioning on HyperLiquid into payrolls showed net BTC buying of just $5.3M over 24 hours.
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Where could BTC pull back to if the breakout fails?
Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacie Zhang flagged the $75,000–$78,000 support zone as the near-term path of least resistance if retail participation fails to return. BTC and ETH changed hands for $79,700 and $2,270, respectively, after the payrolls report.
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