Bitcoin slips below $80K as ETF inflows reverse, Iran tensions flare, and jobs data fails to clear macro ceiling

Bitcoin pulled back below $80,000 Friday as a five-day spot ETF inflow streak — worth $1.69 billion in cumulative net inflows — snapped on Thursday, with $277 million in net outflows recorded in a single session. All 10 spot ether ETFs also flipped negative the same day, posting $104 million in outflows with none recording net inflows, per SoSoValue data.

The reversal coincided with renewed Iran-U.S. ceasefire doubt. Prediction markets are pricing a 97% probability of no Hormuz normalization by May 15, and reports of fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz sent crude higher Friday, partially unwinding the 8% Brent collapse that had lifted risk assets midweek. Perpetual swap markets are now pricing more than a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by April 2027, with early easing pushed out to 2028 — a hawkish shift that held even as the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to ~4.34%.

April…