Bitcoin has fallen back below the bear market resistance band on the daily timeframe, with the 20-week SMA now sitting near $74,000 and price trading roughly $1,000 beneath it into the weekly close. Into the Cryptoverse's Benjamin Cowen argues the move is the textbook midterm-year fake-out — a brief push above the band, a wave of bullish calls, and then a slow drift back under it as the four-year cycle reasserts itself.
Why it matters
Cowen draws a direct line to the 2018 and 2022 midterms, where Bitcoin punched through the 21-week EMA and the bull market support band, ran toward the 200-day moving average, and then rolled over for a deeper drawdown. The current cycle, in his read, has the same shape: a marginal break above the band with almost no follow-through, leaving price vulnerable to a retest from below. The macro tape reinforces the bearish case — with rate cuts being priced out of 2026 and rate hikes now back on the board, Cowen argues Bitcoin sits further up the risk curve than equities, so a stickier inflation regime hits the token harder than the stock market.
Market impact
The analyst flags the June/July window as the historical weak point for midterm-year Bitcoin, with a Q4 bottom more typical than a Q2 low. Structurally, the 200-week moving average is the level he keeps coming back to — Cowen expects it to come into play regardless of whether the next leg sets a lower low or a higher low, framing it as a "date with destiny" for the cycle. His base case: weakness through October, a tone shift into Q4 if the 200-week holds, and the eventual bottom arriving as a time-based capitulation event rather than a clean price print. Until that window opens, the working assumption is that counter-trend rallies inside a midterm year are bear-market traps, not the start of the next leg up.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the bear market resistance band for Bitcoin right now?
On the daily, the band is the technical zone Bitcoin just slipped back under. On the weekly, the 20-week SMA is sitting near $74,000, with price trading roughly $1,000 beneath it into the close — the level that will decide whether the weekly also gives the band back.
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Why does Cowen think the move below the band is a fake-out?
He points to prior midterm years — 2018 and 2022 — where Bitcoin briefly pushed above the 21-week EMA and bull market support band, ran toward the 200-day, and then rolled over. The current break above the band had almost no follow-through, which he reads as the same pattern repeating.
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When does Cowen expect the midterm-year bottom to form?
He flags June/July as the historical weak point in midterm years for Bitcoin, with a more typical major low forming in Q4. His base case is weakness through October, a possible summer bounce, and a final drop into the September–October window.
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What role does the 200-week moving average play in this thesis?
Cowen expects the 200-week MA to come into play regardless of whether the next leg sets a higher low or a lower low, framing it as the cycle's "date with destiny." The level acts as the structural anchor where the time-based bottom is most likely to print.
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How does the macro backdrop factor into the bearish case?
With 2026 rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes now back on the board, Cowen argues Bitcoin sits further up the risk curve than equities. A stickier inflation regime, in his read, hits $BTC harder than the stock market — which is why the two are diverging.
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