A new quantitative framework for Bitcoin price modeling highlights asymmetric tail curvature across price quantiles — the lower tail shows durable structural support, while the upper tail consistently undershoots prior cycle peaks as the market matures. The model builds on Giovanni's 2018 power law, extending it to differentiate upper and lower quantile behavior with greater rigor.
At current levels, Bitcoin has spent only about 9% of its time below the 1st-percentile quantile, which sits near $62K. A drawdown matching late-2022 conditions would place that floor around $57K; a pandemic-severity drop would correspond to roughly $51K. These aren't price targets — they're historically grounded accumulation reference points.
The broader thesis is one of convergence: as Bitcoin matures, peak-to-trough swings are narrowing, with diminishing highs and rising support floors.
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