CoinDesk
Bitcoin gained 1.6% to $77,500 in 24 hours as Polymarket traders pushed the implied probability of a permanent US-Iran peace deal this month to 37%, up from roughly 14% on Friday. Ether added 1.4% and the broader CoinDesk 20 rose 1.56%, while crude oil fell 5.4% to $91.30 a barrel and gold climbed 1.35% to $4,570 an ounce. The move followed a Truth Social post from President Trump on Saturday saying the framework agreement was "subject to finalization," and the arrival of Iran's negotiating team in Doha earlier today for talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar.
Why it matters
Prediction-market odds on Polymarket did the heavy lifting: the 14% to 37% jump over the weekend drove the risk-on bid, with the market pricing a 46% chance of a deal by early June and 72% by the end of July. Roughly $178 million in cumulative volume has been traded on the contract. Iranian negotiators are focused on the Strait of Hormuz — largely blockaded since the US and Israel struck Iran on February 28, though traffic has partially resumed in recent days — and on highly enriched uranium. Iran's foreign ministry has framed an initial deal as a memorandum of understanding, with broader talks over 30 to 60 days.
Market impact
The Hormuz thaw is the macro read traders are reacting to: a 5.4% drop in crude removes one of the stagflation tail risks that has weighed on risk assets since the late-February strikes, while a softer dollar (DXY -0.3%) and rising gold suggest money is rotating back into growth-sensitive positioning. Bitcoin's gain tracks that pattern but stays measured. Trump's conditional language — "a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all" — caps the upside; if Doha talks stall, the same Polymarket contract that lifted $BTC today could reprice sharply lower.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did Bitcoin and crypto prices rise on Monday?
Bitcoin gained 1.6% to $77,500 and ether added 1.4% as Polymarket traders pushed the implied probability of a US-Iran peace deal this month to 37%, up from 14% on Friday. A 5.4% drop in crude oil and a softer dollar added to the risk-on move.
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What are Polymarket odds for a US-Iran peace deal?
Polymarket priced a 37% chance of a permanent deal this month, 46% by early June, and 72% by the end of July. The contract has drawn roughly $178 million in cumulative volume.
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What is the agenda of the US-Iran talks in Doha?
Iranian negotiators met in Doha with Pakistan and Qatar as mediators, focusing on the Strait of Hormuz and highly enriched uranium. Iran's foreign ministry described an initial deal as a memorandum of understanding, with broader talks over 30 to 60 days.
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Why is the Strait of Hormuz important for markets?
The strait has been largely blockaded since US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, though traffic has partially resumed. A sustained reopening removes a key oil-supply tail risk and relieves stagflation pressure on risk assets including crypto.
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What did President Trump say about the US-Iran deal?
Trump posted on Truth Social that the framework agreement was 'subject to finalization' and on Monday wrote, 'It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before.' The conditional tone limits how far the risk-on bid can extend.
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