Bitcoin Ticks Up 1.6% as US-Iran Peace Deal Odds Hit 37% on Polymarket!

Bitcoin climbed 1.6% in 24 hours to $77,500 on Monday as prediction markets priced a rising chance of a near-term US-Iran peace deal. Ether added 1.4% and the broader CoinDesk 20 index gained 1.56%, with the macro backdrop doing most of the lifting.

Polymarket traders pushed the probability of a permanent deal this month to 37%, up sharply from roughly 14% on Friday, with the market drawing $178 million in volume. Odds extend to 46% by early June and 72% by end of July. Iranian negotiators — including chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati — arrived in Doha for talks focused on the Strait of Hormuz and highly enriched uranium, with Pakistan and Qatar mediating.

The macro read is constructive: crude oil fell 5.4% to $91.30 per barrel, gold rose 1.35% to $4,570, and the DXY slipped 0.3%.