Bitcoin has dropped roughly $10,000 in a matter of weeks, sliding from around $83,000 to $73,000 after running directly into the 200-day moving average — the same level that capped rallies in both 2018 and 2022. Analyst Benjamin Cowen argues this rejection is textbook midterm-year behavior, and the window of weakness is far from closed.
Cowen's cycle framework maps Bitcoin's four-year structure onto four year-types: post-halving, election, pre-election, and midterm. The midterm year — 2014, 2018, 2022, and now 2026 — has historically seen Bitcoin fall through the entire first half. Six-month candles confirm it: Bitcoin dropped in H1 of every prior midterm year without exception. Counter-trend rallies appear, but they have never marked the actual low.
The next key window runs into mid-to-late June, where prior cycles printed meaningful lows.
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