CryptoSlate
Bitcoin touched an intraday low of $77,711 on Friday before recovering to roughly $78,225, spending a second consecutive session under macro stress as US Treasury yields held near multi-month highs. The 10-year yield reached 4.599% and the 30-year climbed 11.8 basis points to 5.131%, its highest level since May 2025, leaving BTC competing directly with a Treasury complex paying 4.5%–5.1% on a non-yielding asset. BTC is down 3.9% from its May 15 open above $81,000, and the $77,700–$78,000 zone — already the next support shelf when BTC failed below $82,000 — now carries the full weight of that test.
Why it matters
The macro backdrop leaves the Fed little room to ease. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year over year, up from 3.3% in March, while core CPI held at 2.8% and the energy index climbed 17.9% over the prior 12 months. WTI settled at $105.42 on May 15, up 4.2% on the day, and Trading Economics models Brent at $111.28 by quarter-end. University of Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations reached 4.5% in May, and the Fed's April FOMC statement committed to assessing inflation before easing — both of which keep the policy-relief bar high. K33 data put Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with Nasdaq futures above 0.7, and BTC's beta to equity drawdowns tends to rise when Nasdaq sells hard. Both channels are active in the current sell-off, with stocks and bonds lower alongside BTC.
Market impact
CoinShares reported that Bitcoin investment products drew $706.1 million in inflows in the week ending May 11, a strong institutional bid, but Farside Investors' daily US spot Bitcoin ETF data shows that bid has deteriorated sharply since. The sequence ran outflows of $630.4 million on May 13, inflows of $131.3 million on May 14, and outflows of $290.4 million on May 15 — two-out-of-three outflow days stripping the ETF buffer from the $78,000 support test exactly when it needs defending. A daily close back above $78,000 keeps the correction technically contained; a decisive close below $77,700 confirms the breakdown and shifts focus to $76,500 first, then the $75,000 round-number zone where dip buyers have historically needed to absorb supply with conviction.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the key support level Bitcoin is testing right now?
Bitcoin is testing the $77,700–$78,000 zone, which acted as the next support shelf when BTC failed below $82,000. A daily close above $78,000 keeps the correction technically contained; a decisive close below $77,700 confirms breakdown.
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Why are Treasury yields pressuring Bitcoin?
The 10-year yield reached 4.599% and the 30-year climbed to 5.131% — its highest since May 2025. As a non-yielding asset, BTC now competes with a Treasury complex paying 4.5%–5.1%, raising the opportunity cost of holding it.
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How have spot Bitcoin ETF flows shifted recently?
CoinShares reported $706.1M of inflows for the week ending May 11, but the bid deteriorated sharply. Farside Investors' daily data shows outflows of $630.4M on May 13, inflows of $131.3M on May 14, and outflows of $290.4M on May 15.
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What would trigger a deeper Bitcoin selloff toward $73K?
A sustained move below $75,000 — after losing $77,700 and $76,500 — would push BTC into the $74,000–$73,000 zone, reframing the move as macro-driven deleveraging across risk assets rather than a normal correction.
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What macro conditions would let Bitcoin reclaim $80,000?
The 10-year yield retreating below 4.50%, oil cooling from above $105/bbl, and spot Bitcoin ETF flows flipping positive. A close above the 200-day EMA near $82,000 would reframe the week as a corrective shakeout.
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