Bitcoin's Bear Market Resistance Band Is Rejecting Again — June Low Likely Next

Bitcoin, trading near $77,000, has once again been rejected by its bear market resistance band — a pattern that has repeated in every midterm year cycle: 2014, 2018, and 2022. Analyst Benjamin Cowen argues the recent two-week sell-off actually raises the probability of a June capitulation low rather than a sustained rally, pointing to historical precedent where midterm-year weakness clusters in February, April, and June.

Cowen flags that Bitcoin's valuation against the S&P 500 has been rejected precisely at the 20-week SMA / 21-week EMA — the same level that capped upside in prior bear cycles. He expects Bitcoin to continue underperforming equities for several months, citing crypto's heavier dependence on monetary policy and liquidity versus the earnings-driven bid currently lifting AI-heavy stock indices.