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TD Cowen raised its price target on Strategy (MSTR) to $400 from $395 on Tuesday, citing accelerating bitcoin per share and a balance-sheet action the firm framed as a clear positive for both equity and credit holders. The note, authored by analyst Lance Vitanza and associate Jonnathan Navarrete, kept a Buy rating intact.
The $5 target bump is small, but the underlying revisions are not. TD Cowen lifted its full-year BTC Yield projection to 19.8% from 18.2% and full-year BTC Dollar Gain to $15.16 billion from $13.89 billion, after Q2 treasury activity outpaced the firm's prior models. The firm now forecasts roughly 100,000 BTC purchased in Q2 alone.
Why it matters
Preferred equity issuance has dominated Strategy's Q2 capital raises — roughly $1.95 billion raised against minimal common stock — with nearly all proceeds deployed directly into bitcoin. The composition matters: preferreds carry a fixed dividend obligation rather than the dilutive equity risk that has historically capped MSTR's multiple, and the speed of deployment shows management is willing to lean on that instrument to keep BTC-per-share rising.
Bitcoin per 1,000 fully diluted shares reached 2.21x as of May 17, up from 1.95x at year-end 2025. TD Cowen called the trajectory a core validation of Strategy's financing model: holdings continue to outpace share issuance even as dilution rises.
Market impact
The second leg of the upgrade is a balance-sheet cleanup: Strategy repurchased roughly $1.5 billion of out-of-the-money convertible notes at an ~8% discount to face value. TD Cowen argued the move reduces fully diluted share exposure, improves credit quality, and lowers refinancing risk — a flexibility signal that matters as the convertible stack rolls.
Strategy now holds 843,738 BTC — more than 4% of the 21 million supply cap — after buying 24,869 BTC for ~$2.01 billion from May 11 to May 17, the largest single-week purchase this year since a 34,164 BTC buy in April. MSTR closed at $166.63 on Monday, down ~63% from its 52-week high of $455.90, leaving the $400 target to imply more than 140% upside.
Frequently asked questions
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What is TD Cowen's new price target for Strategy?
TD Cowen raised its MSTR price target to $400 from $395, maintaining a Buy rating. The target implies more than 140% upside from the May 17 close of $166.63.
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Why did TD Cowen raise its MSTR target?
The firm cited faster-than-modeled bitcoin accumulation in Q2 and a ~$1.5 billion repurchase of out-of-the-money convertibles at roughly an 8% discount to face value, which it said reduces fully diluted share exposure and refinancing risk.
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How much bitcoin does Strategy now hold?
Strategy holds 843,738 BTC as of mid-May 2026, more than 4% of the 21 million bitcoin supply cap, after acquiring 24,869 BTC for roughly $2.01 billion between May 11 and May 17.
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What are TD Cowen's updated BTC Yield and BTC Dollar Gain estimates?
Full-year 2026 BTC Yield was raised to 19.8% from 18.2%, and full-year BTC Dollar Gain was raised to $15.16 billion from $13.89 billion, with the firm now modeling roughly 100,000 BTC purchased in Q2 alone.
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How does TD Cowen arrive at the $400 target?
The target applies a 3x multiple to 2026 BTC Dollar Gain of $15.16 billion, then adds projected year-end bitcoin holdings of $132.9 billion and subtracts $3.5 billion in debt and $15.5 billion in preferred equity obligations, arriving at roughly $400 per fully diluted share.
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