Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Flips Green for First Time Since 2023 — Is the Bottom In?

CryptoQuant's Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator has turned green for the first time since March 2023, with onchain analyst Julio Moreno calling it "an important regime-change signal" that suggests the worst phase of the correction may already be behind us. The indicator's shift into the early bull zone historically marks a transition away from bear-market asset behavior — but Moreno is quick to flag March 2022 as a critical exception, when the same signal fired and preceded a deeper downtrend.

Mati Greenspan of Quantum Economics frames the indicator as a regime-shift tool, not a trading trigger. Real confirmation, he argues, requires sustained demand, liquidity, and price acceptance at higher levels — with the immediate test being a decisive break above Bitcoin's stubborn $82,000 resistance, a ceiling that has held despite a 35% rebound from February's $60,000 lows.

Arthur Hayes, CIO…