CoinDesk
CryptoQuant's Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator has turned green for the first time since 2023, signalling what the firm's onchain market analyst Julio Moreno called a potential regime shift from bear-market behaviour toward a recovering market structure. The flip comes after a 35% rebound from February's $60,000 lows, with Bitcoin now pressing against the stubborn $82,000 resistance level that has rejected multiple breakout attempts this month.
Why it matters
Historically, the indicator has marked the moment Bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset and enters an early-bull phase. Moreno noted that previous green flips in 2019 and early 2023 preceded stronger bullish trends — but March 2022 stands as a stark counter-example, when a bullish turn delivered a false positive ahead of a deeper downtrend. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, framed the indicator as a regime-shift tool rather than a crystal ball, arguing that real confirmation arrives only after sustained demand, liquidity, and price acceptance at higher levels.
The current setup carries unusual complexity: the onchain signal is constructive, yet the Fear & Greed index sits neutral and the macroeconomic backdrop is mixed. Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom and BitMEX co-founder, echoed the bullish read without citing the indicator, arguing Bitcoin's $60,000 bottom is already in and pointing to $90,000 as the level where a rally would turn explosive on its way toward a retest of the prior $126,000 high.
Market impact
The operative level is $82,000 — a clean flip on sustained closes would validate the regime shift and likely accelerate flows from sidelined capital. AdLunam co-founder Jason Fernandes cautioned that popular onchain metrics like MVRV and NUPL are better read as behavioural frameworks than precise trading signals, leaving price action and liquidity as the final arbiters of whether this early-bull signal holds.
Frequently asked questions
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What is CryptoQuant's Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator?
It's an onchain metric that tracks whether Bitcoin is behaving like a bear-market or bull-market asset. A green reading signals a regime shift into early-bull territory; a red reading signals bear conditions. It is designed as a regime indicator, not a precise trading tool.
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When did the bull-bear cycle indicator last turn green before now?
The previous green flips occurred in 2019 and in early 2023, both of which preceded sustained bullish trends. CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno flagged March 2022 as a notable false-positive exception, when the indicator turned bullish ahead of a deeper downtrend.
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Why is the $82,000 level so important for Bitcoin right now?
$82,000 has acted as stubborn resistance throughout the current month, rejecting multiple breakout attempts following the 35% rebound from February's $60,000 lows. Analysts including Mati Greenspan say a decisive close above it is required to confirm the regime-shift signal.
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What is Arthur Hayes's Bitcoin price outlook?
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom and BitMEX co-founder, believes Bitcoin already bottomed near $60,000 earlier this year. He points to $90,000 as the level at which the rally would turn explosive, with a potential path back to the prior high of $126,000.
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Are onchain indicators reliable for predicting Bitcoin's next move?
Onchain metrics like MVRV, NUPL, and the CryptoQuant bull-bear indicator are best treated as behavioural frameworks rather than precise trading signals, according to AdLunam co-founder Jason Fernandes. Confirmation typically requires sustained demand, liquidity, and price acceptance at higher levels.
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