CoinDesk
Conviction buyers now hold nearly 4 million BTC, a roughly 300% jump since the end of 2025 and the largest two-quarter surge in high-conviction accumulation since the 2020 COVID crash, according to BitGo data cited by Bitfinex. Valued at just over $320 billion at bitcoin's current price near $80,000, that stash represents a structural migration of realized value into long-term, low-activity hands. Strategy (MSTR) alone sits on 818,869 BTC acquired for nearly $62 billion, including roughly $4.6 billion in unrealized gains.
Why it matters
When supply moves into entities that rarely transact, liquid float on exchanges effectively shrinks. Jameson Lopp, a core bitcoin developer, noted the conviction cohort is separate from the estimated 5.6 million BTC dormant for over a decade, meaning the rotation is a fresh reduction in sellable supply, not a reclassification of old coins. Ran Hammer, VP of business development at Orbs, framed it bluntly: people who actually acquire bitcoin want to accumulate as much as possible and never want to sell, particularly now that borrowing against BTC holdings has become routine.
Market impact
Nearly 70% of recent buyers are in profit, per CEX.IO research, and historically that cohort sells less aggressively into pullbacks, which stiffens the price floor. Connor Howe, CEO and co-founder of Enso, said ETF flows and institutional accumulation are becoming structural rather than speculative, a setup that could make future scarcity far more visible the moment demand accelerates. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, added that tightening liquid supply combined with renewed demand has historically preceded bitcoin's most aggressive upside expansions, though the BitGo metric's exact methodology remains undisclosed.
Frequently asked questions
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What are bitcoin 'conviction buyers' and how much do they hold?
Conviction buyers are long-term, low-activity holders — whether individuals or institutions. According to BitGo data cited by Bitfinex, they now hold nearly 4 million BTC, a roughly 300% increase since the end of 2025 and the largest two-quarter surge in high-conviction buying since the 2020 COVID crash.
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How does Strategy (MSTR) factor into the supply tightening?
Strategy is the largest publicly traded corporate holder of bitcoin, sitting on 818,869 BTC acquired for nearly $62 billion, including roughly $4.6 billion in unrealized gains. Its continued accumulation is one of the single largest absorbers of liquid supply on the open market.
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Why does a 70% in-profit metric matter for the price floor?
CEX.IO research shows nearly 70% of recent buyers' supply is in profit. Historically, when most new entrants are in the green, their urgency to sell into minor pullbacks decreases, which stabilizes BTC's price and reinforces the market floor.
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How is this supply shift different from long-dormant bitcoin?
Core developer Jameson Lopp noted the conviction cohort is separate from the estimated 5.6 million BTC that has been inactive for over a decade. That means the rotation is a fresh reduction in liquid, sellable supply, not a reclassification of coins already off the market.
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Could this tightening supply trigger a supply shock?
Analysts including Mati Greenspan of Quantum Economics and Connor Howe of Enso argue that tightening liquid supply combined with renewed demand has historically preceded bitcoin's most aggressive upside expansions, though the exact BitGo methodology behind the conviction-buyer metric has not been publicly disclosed.
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