CoinDesk
Bitcoin funding rates have collapsed to roughly -4% annualized, the most negative print on a 30-day basis this decade, according to James Aitchison, founder and CIO of Caerus Global, speaking on a panel at Consensus Miami 2026. With longs being paid to carry exposure, the market is sitting on heavy short positioning — a setup that has historically preceded positive returns over 30- to 365-day windows.
The disconnect is sharp: funding hit its most negative level since 2023 in April even as BTC pushed through $75,000, and the spot price has since rebounded from roughly $60,000 into the low $80,000s. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.6 billion so far this month through that drawdown, with short-term holders selling into the bid.
Why it matters
The funding-rate signal is the inverse of the usual retail-mania tell. When shorts are paying longs to sit in positions, it typically means directional conviction is one-sided — and one-sided positioning tends to resolve with a move against the crowd. Aitchison called the cadence "quite a rarity" and pointed to historical analogues where similar conditions resolved higher.
Layered on top of that is a structural shift. Dan Blackmore, chief commercial officer at Glassnode, said bitcoin is moving into a new regime as volatility falls and allocations become more strategic. "We're witnessing the early innings of the Wall Street machine and its impact on the crypto market," Blackmore said on the panel. IBIT options open interest topped Deribit in April, and Morgan Stanley's bitcoin ETF opened last month — both pointing to derivatives and distribution migrating into regulated U.S. venues.
Market impact
The panel was split on year-end targets. Michael Terpin, author of "Bitcoin Supercycle," said bitcoin may not reach a new high this year, with a larger 2028-2029 supply shock still the dominant cycle. Cole Kennelly, founder of Volmex Labs, put $250,000 on the table. Aitchison called $150,000 reasonable if rate cuts return.
Frequently asked questions
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Why are negative Bitcoin funding rates being called bullish?
Negative funding means shorts are paying longs to hold positions — a sign of heavy one-sided short positioning. James Aitchison of Caerus Global said similar setups have historically preceded positive 30- to 365-day returns, because crowded shorts tend to get squeezed when the market moves.
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How negative are Bitcoin funding rates right now?
Funding rates have been running near -4% annualized on a 30-day basis, the lowest reading this decade according to Aitchison, speaking at Consensus Miami 2026. The level is the most negative since 2023.
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How much have spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in this month?
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $1.6 billion so far this month, even as short-term holders sold into the drawdown that took BTC from the low $80Ks back toward $60K.
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What did panelists say about the four-year Bitcoin cycle?
The panel was split. Michael Terpin, author of 'Bitcoin Supercycle,' said bitcoin may not reach a new high this year and pointed to a 2028-2029 supply shock as the dominant cycle. Other panelists argued the halving cycle is losing force as bitcoin becomes a TradFi asset.
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What are panelists' year-end Bitcoin price targets?
Targets ranged widely. Michael Terpin and Dan Blackmore said bitcoin may not reach a new high this year. Cole Kennelly of Volmex Labs floated $250,000. James Aitchison called $150,000 a reasonable target if rate cuts return.
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