CoinDesk
Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index has deepened to -0.90, the most negative reading since September 2022, according to TradingView data. The coefficient of determination comes in at 0.81, meaning roughly 81% of bitcoin's short-term price action is now statistically linked to moves in DXY. The timing is awkward: BTC's push above $79,000 stalled mid-week as the dollar index bounced from an April 17 low of 97.63 to 98.75.
Why it matters
The relationship is being amplified by a macro stack that leans against risk assets. Oil has risen for five straight sessions with Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic effectively constrained, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire track remains unresolved. "Macro is still trying to lean against it [BTC's continued rally]. Oil has risen for five straight sessions and Hormuz remains effectively constrained. That should be a headwind because it keeps the inflation channel alive and keeps risk premia from fully unwinding," analysts at Marex said in an email. Higher energy costs feed the inflation channel, which keeps the dollar bid and risk premia elevated — the exact combination that compresses BTC.
Market impact
Spot bitcoin ETF flows are the counterweight: sustained U.S.-listed inflows are still supporting the bid, but major investors are not leaning in aggressively. SkyBridge's Anthony Scaramucci said a more meaningful BTC recovery may not arrive until October or November, framing the current consolidation as consistent with the four-year halving cycle and noting that whales and long-term holders continue to sell into ETF-driven demand. ETH/BTC confirms the defensive read — the ratio fell nearly 3% this week to 0.02965, the lowest since March 15, breaking below both its short-term ascending channel and the broader downtrend line from August. That breakdown points to continued ether underperformance relative to bitcoin near-term, and keeps the trade a BTC-only expression of the macro correlation rather than a broad crypto risk-on.
Frequently asked questions
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How negative is the bitcoin-dollar correlation right now?
Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index stands at -0.90, the most negative reading since September 2022, per TradingView. A coefficient of determination of 0.81 means roughly 81% of BTC's short-term moves are statistically linked to DXY swings.
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Why is the dollar rebounding against bitcoin this week?
DXY bounced from 97.63 on April 17 to 98.75 as oil prices rose for five straight sessions, driven by Strait of Hormuz tanker disruptions and an unresolved U.S.-Iran ceasefire track. Higher energy costs keep the inflation channel alive and risk premia elevated, both dollar-positive.
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What did Anthony Scaramucci say about bitcoin's recovery timing?
SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci said a more meaningful bitcoin recovery may not arrive until October or November, framing current consolidation as consistent with the four-year halving cycle. He also noted whales and long-term holders continue to sell into ETF-driven demand.
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Are spot bitcoin ETFs still seeing inflows?
Yes. The article notes sustained U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETF inflows are still supporting the bid, even as major investors take a cautious approach and BTC's rally above $79,000 stalls.
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What does the ETH/BTC breakdown signal?
The ETH/BTC ratio fell nearly 3% this week to 0.02965, its lowest since March 15, breaking below both the short-term ascending channel and the broader August downtrend line. The chart points to continued ether underperformance relative to bitcoin in the near term.
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