Bitcoin is on track to close its third consecutive monthly candle in positive territory — a pattern that Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee says has never occurred inside a Bitcoin bear market in the asset's history. Two consecutive up months have happened (notably in 2022), but three has not, with Lee arguing that a third green close definitively ends the current cycle. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both up more than 20% since the start of the Iran conflict, even as broader risk assets have lagged, and Lee expects "billions of dollars" in monthly ETF inflows to continue through year-end.
Why it matters
The framing matters because the institutional bid has been the structural argument of this cycle — and Bitwise's Matt Hogan told Consensus that thesis is holding up. Hogan said the firm saw essentially no outflows in 2018 and none in 2022, and that most of the ETF money that came in is "still there, even though the market is off 50%." His read: institutional allocators entered Bitcoin as outliers, wait until they are 80–90% confident before sizing up, and every data point so far shows they are among the strongest holders in the market — diamond hands precisely because volatility was priced in from day one. Separately, JP Morgan and Mastercard executed the first cross-border tokenized US Treasury transfer over the XRP ledger, redeeming Ondo's OUSG fund on-chain — a signal event for both XRP and the tokenized-Treasury thesis that lands while sentiment is already warming.
Market impact
On the regulatory side, Senator Angela Alsobrooks said the Clarity Act's stablecoin-yield impasse has been resolved, and White House crypto chief Patrick Witt is publicly targeting a July 4th signing — the US's 250th birthday — after a Senate Banking Committee advance this month. If May closes green, Lee's three-month rule triggers a wave of cycle-call flips across the industry; if it doesn't, the structural bid from ETFs and the regulatory pipeline still argues against a sentiment collapse, with Hogan explicitly stating institutional capital will keep coming "almost regardless." The XRP pilot, the Clarity Act timeline, and the third green month are stacking into the same window — a setup Lee's framework reads as the start of a new cycle rather than a bear bounce.
Frequently asked questions
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Has Bitcoin ever closed three consecutive green monthly candles before?
No. According to Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Bitcoin has closed two consecutive green months inside bear markets (notably 2022), but never three. A third consecutive green close in May would be a first in Bitcoin's history and, per Lee's framework, would definitively end the current bear market.
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What did Bitwise say about institutional crypto outflows?
Bitwise's Matt Hogan told Consensus that the firm saw essentially no outflows in 2018 and none in 2022, and that most ETF capital that entered is still held even after a roughly 50% drawdown. He said institutional allocators enter as outliers and only size up at 80–90% conviction, making them among the strongest…
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What did JP Morgan and Mastercard do on the XRP ledger?
JP Morgan and Mastercard completed the first cross-border tokenized US Treasury transfer over the XRP ledger, redeeming Ondo Finance's OUSG short-term government Treasuries fund on-chain. Most observers had expected Ethereum or Solana to win the pilot; XRP landing it is being read as a bullish signal for both the…
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What is the latest on the Clarity Act?
Senator Angela Alsobrooks said the stablecoin-yield impasse blocking the Clarity Act has been resolved, and White House crypto chief Patrick Witt is targeting a July 4th signing — the US's 250th birthday. The plan is a Senate Banking Committee advance this month and a floor vote during June's four working weeks before…
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Why is Bitcoin up 20% since the Iran conflict started?
Bitcoin and Ethereum are both up more than 20% since the Iran conflict began, even as broader risk assets lagged. The channel hosting the Consensus coverage framed oil weakness (around $91/barrel) and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as supportive for risk, while Bitwise's data argues the institutional bid…
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