Glassnode
BTC closed ahead of the S&P 500 on Tuesday, a rare beat in a quarter where the original crypto benchmark has struggled to keep pace with US equities.
Over the last three months, BTC has outperformed the S&P 500 on roughly one in three trading days, the weakest relative-performance stretch in six years of comparable data.
Why it matters
The 3-month win rate has been the quiet story under the surface while BTC printed flat-to-down absolute returns. Equities rode a strong earnings cycle and softening macro prints that priced in rate-cut optimism, while BTC lacked a fresh catalyst beyond the spot ETF flow story. The relative chart is the cleanest read on which side of that trade the marginal dollar has been on.
Market impact
One green session does not undo three months of persistent underperformance. The next BTC-specific data point, whether US spot ETF flows, the rollout of spot ETF options, or a fresh macro shock, will decide whether the ratio continues to bleed. Until then, BTC versus the S&P 500 remains a warning flag rather than a buy signal.
Frequently asked questions
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How often has BTC beaten the S&P 500 over the last 3 months?
Roughly one in three trading days, the weakest relative-performance stretch in six years of comparable data, according to the source's chartwork.
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Why has BTC been lagging US equities recently?
US equities rode a strong earnings cycle and softening macro prints that priced in rate-cut optimism, while BTC lacked a fresh catalyst beyond the spot ETF flow story.
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Is one day of outperformance enough to reverse the trend?
No. Three months of persistent underperformance take more than a single green session to undo, and the next BTC-specific data point will decide whether the ratio holds.
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What BTC-specific events could shift the relative chart next?
US spot ETF flow data, the rollout of spot ETF options, and any fresh macro shock are the next catalysts likely to move BTC versus equities.
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Has BTC ever gone longer without beating the S&P 500?
Not in the last six years of comparable data. The current 3-month stretch is the weakest relative-performance run of that window.
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