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Bitcoin has flashed the momentum signal that preceded its last two bull markets: MVRV has crossed back above its 365-day average.
MVRV, or Market Value to Realized Value, compares Bitcoin's market capitalization with the value of coins at the price they last moved on-chain. When the metric climbs back above its own 365-day average, it signals that the average holder has returned to profit and that momentum has shifted from accumulation to expansion.
Why it matters
This is the same cross that appeared in 2019 and 2023, at the beginning of each of the last two bull markets. On both occasions, the signal arrived early in the cycle rather than at a top, which is why analysts track it as a regime-change marker rather than a short-term trade trigger.
The metric has been below its 365-day average through the recent consolidation phase, reflecting underwater positions and fading momentum. The new cross suggests that phase is ending.
Market impact
Historical precedent is the whole story here: two prior prints of this signal each kicked off sustained bull runs, and the market will now test whether the pattern holds a third time. Momentum traders tend to treat the MVRV cross as a confirmation to add risk, which can itself reinforce the trend through fresh inflows.
What to watch next is whether BTC holds above the level that produced the cross. A failed cross that rolls back under the 365-day average would flag the signal as noise, while a sustained hold would align on-chain momentum with the bullish case.
Frequently asked questions
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What MVRV signal did Bitcoin just flash?
Bitcoin's MVRV metric has crossed back above its 365-day average. This is the same momentum cross that appeared in 2019 and 2023, at the beginning of each of the last two bull markets.
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Why is the MVRV 365-day average cross significant?
MVRV compares Bitcoin's market cap with the value of coins at their last on-chain move price. When it rises above its own 365-day average, the average holder is back in profit and momentum shifts from accumulation to expansion.
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What happened the last two times BTC flashed this signal?
The same MVRV cross appeared in 2019 and in 2023, and on both occasions it arrived early in the cycle rather than at a top, marking the start of a sustained bull market.
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Does the MVRV cross guarantee a new bull market?
No. The signal is a historical pattern based on two prior occurrences. If BTC rolls back under the 365-day average, the cross would be flagged as noise rather than a regime change.
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What should traders watch after the MVRV cross?
Whether Bitcoin holds above the level that produced the cross. A sustained hold aligns on-chain momentum with the bullish case and can reinforce the trend through fresh inflows, while a failed cross would invalidate the signal.
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