WuBlockchain
Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, expects the current Bitcoin bull market to deliver a 3x to 5x advance rather than a parabolic 10x-plus surge, followed by a markedly milder bear market.
Why it matters
The call rests on structure, not sentiment. Earlier retail-driven, low-liquidity cycles ran on hot money, which fueled explosive vertical rallies alongside 80% drawdowns. Growing institutional ownership and an expanded market capitalization are now damping volatility on both ends of the cycle.
His on-chain read supports the thesis: MVRV has never dipped below 1 this cycle, realized cap keeps climbing on fresh capital, early OG whales have halted distributions, and futures whales loaded aggressive long exposure near cycle lows. The 365-day moving average of CryptoQuant's PnL Index is printing a meaningful inflection point.
Market impact
A 3–5x band implies smaller upside but also shallower drawdowns than the historical playbook, a profile closer to a maturing asset class than a speculative casino. The signals to watch are whether MVRV holds above 1, whether OG whales resume distribution, and whether the PnL Index inflection extends. A break in any of those would undercut the dampened-cycle thesis; their persistence is the bull case.
Frequently asked questions
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How much does Ki Young Ju expect Bitcoin to rise this cycle?
The CryptoQuant founder expects a 3x to 5x advance rather than the parabolic 10x-plus surges of earlier cycles, followed by a markedly milder bear market.
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Why does Ki Young Ju expect smaller Bitcoin gains this cycle?
He argues that growing institutional ownership and an expanded market capitalization are structurally dampening volatility on both ends, replacing the hot-money dynamics of earlier low-liquidity cycles.
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Which on-chain indicators support the Bitcoin bull case?
MVRV has never dipped below 1 this cycle, realized cap is climbing with fresh capital, early OG whales halted distributions, futures whales loaded longs near the lows, and the 365-day PnL Index average is inflecting upward.
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How will the next Bitcoin bear market differ from past ones?
Ju expects a markedly milder drawdown than historical cycles, when retail-driven hot money produced explosive rallies alongside 80% drawdowns.
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What was different about earlier Bitcoin bull cycles?
Earlier cycles were retail-driven and low-liquidity, so concentrated hot money fueled explosive vertical rallies, which were followed by drawdowns of around 80%.
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