CoinDesk
Bitcoin is trading roughly $10,000 below the max pain level on the eve of one of the largest crypto options expiries on record. Spot sits near $61,700 against a Friday expiry max pain of $72,000 on Deribit, where $10.2 billion in notional options rolls off at 8:00 a.m. ET, exposing the limits of the popular pinning theory that has shaped crypto Twitter commentary through multiple cycles.
Why it matters
Max pain holds that option writers actively push spot toward the strike where buyers lose the most, supposedly pinning price ahead of settlement. The thesis has been a staple of crypto options discourse since 2020-2021, when BTC repeatedly converged on the level ahead of monthly and quarterly expiries. That pattern is not holding now. BTC slid from about $67,000 to below $60,000 over the past week, drifting further from the $72,000 target rather than toward it. Recent expiries have shown a similar absence of mechanical pinning, reinforcing skepticism from professional options traders.
Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere told Zipp the theory has limited mechanical pull. Friday's expiry is something to keep an eye on with $10.2B rolling off Deribit with max pain at $72K, well above spot, he said. Despite it being a compelling narrative, recent option expiries haven't really mechanically pinned down prices in the way people expect them to do. Pelion Capital founder Tony Stewart has been a longstanding skeptic, arguing the effect carries limited weight in crypto markets.
Market impact
Even with the pinning narrative weakening, the expiry itself remains a structural event. Deribit has framed the June settlement as one of the year's largest liquidity moments, with billions in contracts set to expire or roll into later dates, a process that historically amplifies intraday volatility regardless of where max pain sits. Broader market activity has already cooled: combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% in May to $4.41 trillion, the lowest since September 2024, though RWA perpetual futures volumes bucked the trend with a 10.4% rise to a new all-time high.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the max pain level for Bitcoin's June options expiry?
The max pain level for the Friday expiry on Deribit is around $72,000, well above the current spot price near $61,700. Max pain is the strike at which options buyers collectively lose the most.
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How much in Bitcoin options is expiring on Deribit?
Roughly $10.2 billion in notional Bitcoin options will roll off Deribit at 8:00 a.m. ET on Friday, making it one of the largest crypto options settlements of the year.
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Why are traders skeptical of the max pain pinning theory?
Bitcoin fell from about $67,000 to below $60,000 over the past week instead of gravitating toward the $72,000 target. Recent expiries have similarly lacked the expected mechanical pinning, leading traders like Wintermute's Jasper De Maere and Pelion's Tony Stewart to call the effect overstated.
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What happens when options expire without a pinning effect?
Contracts still expire or roll into later dates, which historically amplifies intraday volatility around the settlement time. Even without a clear pin, the liquidity event reshapes positioning in the forward curve.
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How did broader crypto market volumes behave in May?
Combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% in May to $4.41 trillion, the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% over the same period, hitting a new all-time high.
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