CoinDesk
Jefferies told clients on Tuesday that the Clarity Act faces a difficult path through the US Senate, with analysts led by Andrew Moss warning that volatility across crypto tokens and blockchain-linked equities will rise as the bill's prospects become clearer over the next few weeks.
The bank flagged three pressure points. Polymarket odds of passage by year-end have slipped to 48% from 70% in mid-May, the Senate has roughly 20 legislative days before the August recess to merge competing versions, clear procedural votes and reconcile with the House, and a failure to clear that window "could push the bill out to next year, or even later, if Democrats flip the Senate in November."
Why it matters
The Clarity Act is the crypto industry's flagship market-structure bill because it would replace years of jurisdictional ambiguity with a hard rule: digital assets sit with the SEC when sold as securities and with the CFTC when sold as commodities. Jefferies argues that durable clarity, not agency guidance, is what banks, asset managers and exchanges need before they expand tokenization, custody, staking and lending at scale. Recent SEC, CFTC and OCC moves have improved the tone, the analysts noted, but guidance can be reversed by a future administration, which keeps the largest regulated institutions in a holding pattern.
Market impact
Jefferies expects the legislative calendar to drive two-way action in crypto-linked equities, naming Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN) and CoinDesk parent Bullish (BLSH) as the names most exposed to headline flow. For Circle the read is mixed: the current bill text would reportedly close a loophole that lets third parties such as Coinbase pay rewards on USDC holdings, a potential drag on stablecoin growth, while delay buys time for Circle to widen its payments network. JPMorgan issued a similar warning earlier this month, telling clients the bill has only a narrow window this year as the congressional calendar tightens ahead of the midterms and the stablecoin-yield fight remains unresolved.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the Clarity Act and why does it matter for crypto markets?
The Clarity Act is the flagship US crypto market-structure bill, designed to draw a hard line between the SEC, which would regulate digital assets sold as securities, and the CFTC, which would regulate them as commodities. Backers say durable statute, not agency guidance, is what banks and asset managers need before…
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What did Jefferies actually say about the bill's outlook?
Analysts led by Andrew Moss told clients on Tuesday that the Clarity Act faces a difficult path through the Senate, with elevated volatility expected in crypto tokens and blockchain-linked equities as the bill's prospects become clearer. They warned that a failure to pass before the August recess could push the bill…
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How likely is the Clarity Act to pass in 2026?
Polymarket odds of passage by year-end stood at 48% on the Jefferies note, down from 70% in mid-May, as ethics provisions, illicit-finance concerns and limited Senate floor time weighed on the outlook. Lawmakers have roughly 20 legislative days before the August recess to merge competing versions and reconcile with…
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Which crypto-linked stocks does Jefferies expect to be most volatile?
Jefferies expects the legislative process to drive swings in Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN) and CoinDesk parent Bullish (BLSH). For Circle the read is mixed, since the current bill would reportedly close a loophole letting Coinbase pay rewards on USDC, while delay would give Circle more time to expand its payments…
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What could change the bill's path before the August recess?
Three things: the Senate would need to merge competing versions of the bill, clear procedural votes, and reconcile the package with the House version already passed, all within roughly 20 legislative days. A failure to land any of those steps could push final passage into 2027, with the added risk that Democrats take…
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