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TD Cowen expects the Senate to begin considering the Clarity Act the week of July 13, but said the crypto market-structure bill still faces significant political and policy hurdles before the midterm election. The investment bank framed passage in that window as "far from assured."
Why it matters
The Clarity Act is the legislative vehicle crypto market-structure advocates have been waiting on: a formal framework for how the SEC and CFTC split jurisdiction over digital assets, stablecoin oversight, and disclosure rules for token issuers. A July markup is procedural. A floor vote before November is the substantive test. Banking-industry opposition to yield-bearing stablecoins and ethics-rule disputes over Trump-family crypto ventures are the named friction points, alongside unresolved law-enforcement access questions.
Market impact
A pre-midterm path keeps the timeline tight: even if the Senate clears the bill, House reconciliation, conference, and a final vote compress into weeks. Investors and issuers positioning for a Q4 regulatory clarity window now have to weight slippage risk into early 2026. Token projects built on the assumption of near-term SEC-CFTC jurisdictional clarity face an extended uncertainty premium.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the Clarity Act?
It is the pending US crypto market-structure bill that would define how the SEC and CFTC split jurisdiction over digital assets, set stablecoin oversight rules, and establish disclosure standards for token issuers.
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Why is TD Cowen skeptical about passage before the midterms?
The bank named three friction points: ethics-rule disputes tied to Trump-family crypto ventures, banking-industry opposition to yield-bearing stablecoins, and unresolved law-enforcement access questions.
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When does the Senate begin considering the bill?
TD Cowen expects the Senate to begin markup of the Clarity Act the week of July 13, though that procedural step is separate from a floor vote.
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What happens if the bill slips past the midterms?
A pre-midterm path keeps the timeline tight. If the bill slips, issuers and investors positioning for Q4 regulatory clarity face an extended uncertainty window into early 2026.
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How does the Clarity Act affect crypto markets if it passes?
It would reduce regulatory ambiguity for token issuers, clarify which agency oversees which digital assets, and set formal rules around stablecoins, potentially easing compliance costs for US-based crypto businesses.
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