CLARITY Act Odds Crash From 75% to 50% in a Single Week!

Prediction market odds on the CLARITY Act passing before 2027 collapsed from roughly 75% to 50% in a single week, according to Kalshi data. Traders are pricing in a compressed Senate calendar, unresolved yield-bearing stablecoin disputes, and sustained banking lobby friction. The window for passage before August now sits at just 37% — and before July, a stark 14%.

The divergence between platforms is telling: Polymarket's 2026 passage contract still trades at 60%, up 16% over the prior month, suggesting retail participants are more structurally optimistic than Kalshi positioning implies. Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn puts 2026 odds at roughly 50-50, citing five sequential procedural hurdles — the Senate Banking Committee markup cleared on May 14th (15-9), but that clears only one of five gates.