CoinDesk
The U.S. House Oversight Committee has opened an investigation into Polymarket and Kalshi over suspicions that government employees could be exploiting classified information to profit from policy and geopolitical events, Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) said Friday on CNBC's Squawk Box. Comer is demanding internal records from CEOs Shayne Coplan and Kalshi's Tarek Mansour, covering how the platforms verify identities, enforce geographic restrictions, and flag anomalous trading activity.
Comer told CNBC there is "a concern now that members of Congress, members of the president's administration, any type of government employee, can use basic insider knowledge and make huge profits on anything government-related." He signaled legislation could follow the probe to bar members of Congress, administration officials, and other government employees from participating in prediction markets outright.
Why it matters
Prediction-market volumes hit $51 billion last year and could reach roughly $240 billion in 2026, according to a Bernstein report in April, with the broker modeling a peak near $1 trillion by 2030 as the sector evolves from niche wagering into broad "information markets" spanning sports, crypto, politics, and the economy. That scale is what turns Comer's insider-trading inquiry from a compliance headache into a market-structure problem — the larger the event-contract pool, the more attractive it becomes for anyone with advance knowledge of policy decisions, military operations, or economic data.
Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman told CoinDesk his team found 80 bets on Polymarket with a 98% win rate — a figure he called "statistically impossible" — and warned that if outside observers can spot the irregular trades, so can adversaries of the United States. The national-security framing puts the platforms alongside traditional finance infrastructure in terms of regulatory exposure, rather than alongside sportsbooks.
Frequently asked questions
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Who is leading the Congressional probe into Polymarket and Kalshi?
Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, announced the investigation on CNBC's Squawk Box on Friday and is seeking internal records from both platforms' CEOs.
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What specific information is the House Oversight Committee requesting?
Comer is demanding records on how Polymarket and Kalshi handle identity verification, enforce geographic restrictions, and flag anomalous trading activity, to determine whether government employees are exploiting insider knowledge.
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Could legislation actually ban members of Congress from using prediction markets?
Comer signaled legislation could follow the probe to bar members of Congress, administration officials, and other government employees from participating in prediction markets outright, saying it "wouldn't be too much to ask."
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How large is the prediction-market sector the probe is targeting?
Volumes hit $51 billion last year, could reach roughly $240 billion in 2026, and Bernstein models a peak near $1 trillion by 2030 as the sector expands from niche wagering into broad "information markets" across sports, crypto, politics, and the economy.
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What evidence is there of actual insider trading on these platforms?
Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman told CoinDesk his team identified 80 bets on Polymarket with a 98% win rate, which he called "statistically impossible to achieve," and warned that adversarial actors could spot the same irregular trades.
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